Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1Q O/U 41.5 | 95% |
| 1Q O/U 43.5 | 93% |
| Nuggets O/U 93.5 | 92% |
| O/U 200.5 | 91% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 1.5 | 90% |
| O/U 202.5 | 89% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 89% |
| Nuggets O/U 95.5 | 89% |
| 1Q O/U 45.5 | 87% |
| O/U 204.5 | 86% |
| Nuggets O/U 97.5 | 85% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 84% |
| Kevin Durant: Assists O/U 1.5 | 84% |
| O/U 206.5 | 83% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 83% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 83% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 3.5 | 82% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 9.5 | 81% |
| 1Q O/U 47.5 | 81% |
| Nuggets O/U 99.5 | 81% |
| O/U 208.5 | 80% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 78% |
| O/U 210.5 | 77% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 77% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 14.5 | 75% |
| Nuggets O/U 101.5 | 75% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 14.5 | 74% |
| 1Q O/U 49.5 | 74% |
| O/U 212.5 | 73% |
| Tari Eason: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 71% |
| O/U 214.5 | 70% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 70% |
| Nuggets O/U 103.5 | 70% |
| Rockets O/U 108.5 | 70% |
| 1H O/U 97.5 | 70% |
| Rockets O/U 104.5 | 70% |
| Rockets 1H O/U 53.5 | 69% |
| 2Q O/U 48.5 | 69% |
| Rockets 1H O/U 51.5 | 69% |
| Rockets O/U 106.5 | 69% |
| Rockets O/U 102.5 | 69% |
| 1H O/U 89.5 | 69% |
| 2Q O/U 50.5 | 68% |
| O/U 216.5 | 67% |
| Tari Eason: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 67% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 3.5 | 67% |
| 1H O/U 101.5 | 67% |
| Rockets O/U 110.5 | 66% |
| 1H O/U 93.5 | 66% |
| 1H O/U 91.5 | 66% |
| 1H O/U 99.5 | 65% |
| 1H O/U 95.5 | 65% |
| Nuggets O/U 105.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 103.5 | 64% |
| 1Q O/U 51.5 | 63% |
| Spread -1.5 | 61% |
| O/U 218.5 | 61% |
| Tari Eason: Steals O/U 0.5 | 61% |
| 1H O/U 105.5 | 61% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 60% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 60% |
| Fred VanVleet: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 60% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 60% |
| O/U 219.5 | 60% |
| Spencer Jones: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 60% |
| 2Q O/U 52.5 | 59% |
| 1H O/U 106.5 | 59% |
| Spread -2.5 | 57% |
| O/U 220.5 | 57% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 9.5 | 57% |
| Marcus Smart: Steals O/U 0.5 | 56% |
| Nuggets O/U 107.5 | 56% |
| Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 56% |
| Rockets 1H O/U 54.5 | 56% |
| Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| Kevin Durant: Assists O/U 3.5 | 55% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 19.5 | 55% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 53.5 | 55% |
| 3Q O/U 57.5 | 55% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 55% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 55% |
| 3Q O/U 55.5 | 55% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 55% |
| Rockets O/U 112.5 | 55% |
| 1H O/U 107.5 | 55% |
| 3Q O/U 53.5 | 55% |
| 3Q O/U 51.5 | 55% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 14.5 | 54% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 54% |
| O/U 222.5 | 53% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 53% |
| Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 8.5 | 53% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Rockets 1H O/U 55.5 | 52% |
| 2Q O/U 53.5 | 52% |
| Jamal Murray: Points O/U 21.5 | 52% |
| Rockets O/U 113.5 | 52% |
| Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Nuggets 1H O/U 50.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| Nuggets 1H O/U 48.5 | 51% |
| Nuggets 1H O/U 46.5 | 51% |
| O/U 223.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 108.5 | 51% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Nuggets O/U 109.5 | 50% |
| Rockets 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Nuggets 2H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Rockets 2H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Nuggets 2H O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| Rockets 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Nuggets 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Rockets 2H O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| Nuggets 2H O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| Rockets 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Nuggets 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Nuggets 2H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Overtime? | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 54.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 49% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 15.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| O/U 224.5 | 48% |
| Tari Eason: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Rockets O/U 114.5 | 48% |
| Nuggets 1H O/U 52.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 48% |
| Nuggets 1H O/U 54.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 48% |
| Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 24.5 | 48% |
| Tari Eason: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| Spread -5.5 | 46% |
| Tari Eason: Points O/U 4.5 | 46% |
| 1Q O/U 55.5 | 46% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 46% |
| Nuggets O/U 110.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| 3Q O/U 59.5 | 45% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 45% |
| 3Q O/U 61.5 | 45% |
| 3Q O/U 63.5 | 45% |
| Spencer Jones: Points O/U 4.5 | 45% |
| Rockets 1H O/U 56.5 | 45% |
| O/U 226.5 | 44% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| Spread -6.5 | 43% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 43% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Nuggets O/U 111.5 | 42% |
| Spread -7.5 | 41% |
| Fred VanVleet: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 11.5 | 41% |
| O/U 228.5 | 40% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| 1H Moneyline | 40% |
| Rockets O/U 116.5 | 40% |
| Rockets O/U 120.5 | 40% |
| Nuggets vs. Rockets | 39% |
| Marcus Smart: Points O/U 4.5 | 39% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 1H O/U 111.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 39% |
| Spread -8.5 | 38% |
| Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 38% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| Marcus Smart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 37% |
| Tari Eason: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| Tari Eason: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 37% |
| 1Q O/U 57.5 | 37% |
| Nuggets O/U 113.5 | 37% |
| O/U 230.5 | 36% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 4.5 | 36% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Amen Thompson: Steals O/U 0.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| Fred VanVleet: Steals O/U 0.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| Rockets 1H O/U 57.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 2Q O/U 56.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 35% |
| Spread -9.5 | 34% |
| Alperen Sengün: Steals O/U 0.5 | 34% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| Rockets O/U 118.5 | 34% |
| Rockets O/U 122.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 34% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 34% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 34% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 24.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| Rockets 1H O/U 59.5 | 33% |
| Rockets O/U 124.5 | 33% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 33% |
| Rockets O/U 126.5 | 33% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 34.5 | 32% |
| Alperen Sengün: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 32% |
| Kevin Durant: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 32% |
| O/U 232.5 | 31% |
| Spread -10.5 | 31% |
| Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 6.5 | 31% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 7.5 | 31% |
| Nuggets O/U 115.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 31% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 20.5 | 30% |
| Jamal Murray: Points O/U 20.5 | 30% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 12.5 | 30% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 1Q O/U 59.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 29% |
| Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 25.5 | 28% |
| Marcus Smart: Points O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 28% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 28% |
| O/U 234.5 | 27% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 16.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 27% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 24.5 | 26% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| Nuggets O/U 117.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -18.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 26% |
| Spread -12.5 | 25% |
| Spread -5.5 | 25% |
| Marcus Smart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 25% |
| Spencer Jones: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 25% |
| O/U 236.5 | 24% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -22.5 | 24% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 19.5 | 23% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 14.5 | 23% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 23% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 22% |
| O/U 238.5 | 21% |
| Alperen Sengün: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 21% |
| Spread -14.5 | 20% |
| Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5 | 20% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 20% |
| Kevin Durant: Assists O/U 5.5 | 19% |
| Amen Thompson: Steals O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| Fred VanVleet: Steals O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 19% |
| O/U 240.5 | 18% |
| Tari Eason: Steals O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| Spread -16.5 | 17% |
| Tari Eason: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| Marcus Smart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| Alperen Sengün: Steals O/U 1.5 | 17% |
| 1Q O/U 63.5 | 17% |
| Spread -9.5 | 16% |
| Marcus Smart: Steals O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 7.5 | 15% |
| Marcus Smart: Steals O/U 1.5 | 15% |
| O/U 242.5 | 14% |
| Spread -18.5 | 14% |
| Tari Eason: Points O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Alperen Sengün: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 14% |
| Alperen Sengün: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Kevin Durant: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 14% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| O/U 244.5 | 12% |
| Spread -11.5 | 12% |
| Spread -20.5 | 12% |
| Fred VanVleet: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 29.5 | 11% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 34.5 | 11% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| O/U 246.5 | 10% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Tari Eason: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 | 9% |
| Amen Thompson: Steals O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Tari Eason: Steals O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| 1Q O/U 65.5 | 9% |
| Spencer Jones: Points O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| O/U 248.5 | 8% |
| Spread -22.5 | 8% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 8% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 8% |
| Tari Eason: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 8% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 9.5 | 8% |
| Alperen Sengün: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 8% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Fred VanVleet: Steals O/U 2.5 | 8% |
| Kevin Durant: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 8% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| O/U 250.5 | 7% |
| Spread -15.5 | 7% |
| Spread -24.5 | 7% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 29.5 | 7% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 7% |
| Alperen Sengün: Steals O/U 2.5 | 7% |
| Spencer Jones: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 24.5 | 6% |
| Marcus Smart: Points O/U 14.5 | 6% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 6% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 6% |
| O/U 252.5 | 5% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| O/U 254.5 | 5% |
| Tari Eason: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 5% |
| Marcus Smart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 5% |
| Spread -26.5 | 4% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| Spread -28.5 | 4% |
| O/U 256.5 | 4% |
| Tari Eason: Points O/U 19.5 | 4% |
| Kevin Durant: Assists O/U 7.5 | 4% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 7.5 | 4% |
| Spencer Jones: Points O/U 14.5 | 4% |
| Alperen Sengün: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| Spread -30.5 | 2% |
| Spread -23.5 | 2% |
| Spread -32.5 | 2% |
Market context
Nuggets vs. Rockets. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 39% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-11-10T01:30:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $1.3M.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Nuggets vs. Rockets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Which entertainment markets are available?
- Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
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