D.C. United SC vs. New England Revolution

Platform comparison

Market context

D.C. United and New England Revolution will contest a Major League Soccer fixture on Wednesday, 19 August 2026. The match forms part of the regular season schedule, with kickoff scheduled for late evening Eastern Time. The 0% probability currently reflected suggests traders view one outcome as overwhelmingly likely or perceive insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds.

Historical MLS matchups between these franchises show competitive balance across their rivalry. D.C. United holds a marginal advantage in head-to-head records, though recent seasons have seen the Revolution strengthen considerably. Weather conditions in the Washington, D.C. area during mid-August typically favour faster-paced play, with heat and humidity potentially affecting squad rotation decisions. Squad availability—particularly injury status among key midfielders and forwards—will shape tactical approaches in the final week before settlement.

Traders should monitor team news releases through 18 August for confirmation of starting lineups and any late withdrawals. MLS fixture congestion in August often influences squad management, with clubs balancing domestic league commitments against concurrent Concacaf Champions Cup obligations. Recent precedent from comparable sports markets shows that extreme probability skew (0% or near-ceiling) typically reflects either decisive structural information (confirmed absences, venue changes) or thin order books. The settlement window closes at 23:30 UTC on 19 August, allowing only post-match confirmation. Confirmation of final team sheets and any official postponement announcements will be the critical catalysts determining whether current pricing reflects genuine certainty or merely illiquidity.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for D.C. United SC vs. New England Revolution. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.