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MLB: Triples Leader

How the prediction markets are pricing "MLB: Triples Leader" — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Corbin Carroll 83% Luis Arraez 3% Xavier Edwards 2% Francisco Lindor 1% Volume: $1.3M Liquidity: $39K Closes: 28 Sept 2026
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MLB: Triples Leader

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 83% 17% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 83% 17% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Corbin Carroll83%
Luis Arraez3%
Xavier Edwards2%
Francisco Lindor1%
Otto Lopez1%
Max Muncy1%
Chandler Simpson1%
Wilyer Abreu1%
Roman Anthony1%
Jarren Duran1%
Daylen Lile1%
Zach McKinstry1%
Byron Buxton1%
Elly De La Cruz1%
Jackson Merrill1%
Bobby Witt Jr.1%
CJ Abrams1%
Andrew Benintendi0%
Wyatt Langford0%
Jakob Marsee0%
Kevin McGonigle0%
Ronald Acuña Jr.0%
Miguel Andujar0%
Jung Hoo Lee0%
Shohei Ohtani0%
Mickey Moniak0%
Trea Turner0%
Michael Harris II0%
Jordan Beck0%
Player A0%
Player B0%
Player C0%
Player D0%
Player E0%
Player F0%
Player G0%
Player H0%
Player I0%
Player J0%
Player K0%
Player L0%
Player M0%
Player N0%
Player O0%
Player P0%
Player Q0%
Player R0%
Player S0%
Player T0%
Player U0%
Player V0%
Player W0%
Player X0%
Player Y0%
Player Z0%
Player AA0%
Player BB0%
Player CC0%
Player DD0%
Player EE0%
Player FF0%
Player GG0%
Player HH0%
Player II0%
Player JJ0%
Player KK0%
Player LL0%
Player MM0%
Player NN0%
Player OO0%
Player PP0%
Player QQ0%
Player RR0%
Player SS0%
Player TT0%
Player UU0%
Player VV0%
Player WW0%
Player XX0%
Player YY0%
Player ZZ0%
Player AAA0%
Player BBB0%
Player CCC0%
Player DDD0%
Other0%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 83% probability to mlb: triples leader. This market will resolve according to the player who hits the most triples during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the offic…

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for MLB: Triples Leader. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?
Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
When do award markets resolve?
After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
How accurate are award predictions?
Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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