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MLB: RBIs Leader

Snapshot for "MLB: RBIs Leader": award probabilities, show odds, every CTA to Oscar Predictions 2026.

Yordan Alvarez 47% Pete Alonso 36% Junior Caminero 35% CJ Abrams 35% Volume: $1.6M Liquidity: $18K Closes: 28 Sept 2026
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MLB: RBIs Leader

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 47% 53% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 47% 53% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Yordan Alvarez47%
Pete Alonso36%
Junior Caminero35%
CJ Abrams35%
Kyle Schwarber9%
Andy Pages3%
Riley Greene2%
Liam Hicks2%
Brandon Lowe2%
Cal Raleigh1%
Aaron Judge1%
Rafael Devers1%
Juan Soto1%
Taylor Ward1%
James Wood1%
Sal Stewart1%
Drake Baldwin1%
Eugenio Suárez0%
Vinnie Pasquantino0%
Christian Yelich0%
Seiya Suzuki0%
Bo Bichette0%
Nico Hoerner0%
Oneil Cruz0%
Jorge Soler0%
Player A0%
Player B0%
Player C0%
Player D0%
Player E0%
Player F0%
Player G0%
Player H0%
Player I0%
Player J0%
Player K0%
Player L0%
Player M0%
Player N0%
Player O0%
Player P0%
Player Q0%
Player R0%
Player S0%
Player T0%
Player U0%
Player V0%
Player W0%
Player X0%
Player Y0%
Player Z0%
Player AA0%
Player AB0%
Player AC0%
Player AD0%
Player AE0%
Player AF0%
Player AG0%
Player AH0%
Player AI0%
Player AJ0%
Player AK0%
Player AL0%
Player AM0%
Player AN0%
Player AO0%
Player AP0%
Player AQ0%
Player AR0%
Player AS0%
Other0%

Market context

MLB: RBIs Leader — current market-implied probability: 47%. This market will resolve according to the player who records the most runs batted in (RBIs) during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve accor…

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for MLB: RBIs Leader. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

How accurate are award predictions?
Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
Who can trade Eurovision markets?
Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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