Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the MLB game between the Kansas City Royals and Chicago White Sox held on 26 June 2026 at Rate Field in Chicago, which concluded with a decisive 22-1 victory for the White Sox[1]. This outcome renders the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a Royals win as a factual reflection of the game's result, not a speculative forecast. The market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox" given their overwhelming win, with no possibility of a tie or cancellation affecting the outcome[1].

Historical precedents in sports prediction markets, such as Eurovision’s 50/50 jury and televote split or the Oscars’ preferential ballot for Best Picture, illustrate how public sentiment can diverge from jury or official results[1]. In this case, the public’s 0% probability aligns perfectly with the official game statistics, mirroring scenarios where the jury’s verdict matches the public’s overwhelming consensus. This convergence suggests the market has already corrected to reflect the definitive result, eliminating any ambiguity about the resolution source[1].

Traders should monitor official MLB announcements regarding game postponements or cancellations, though the 22-1 result confirms the game was completed without interruption[1]. Recent coverage from MLB.com highlights Miguel Vargas’ 17th home run of the year as a key catalyst for the White Sox’s dominance, reinforcing the likelihood of their victory[5]. No further schedule dependencies exist, as the settlement window ends on 3 July 2026, well after the game’s conclusion[1]. The market’s resolution is now a matter of record, not speculation.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.