Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On Friday, 26 June 2026, the Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers faced off at Comerica Park in a regular-season MLB match scheduled for 6:40 PM ET. The game has already concluded, with the Detroit Tigers securing a decisive victory, rendering the market’s 0% YES probability for an Astros win entirely accurate in real-world terms.

Historical precedents in sports prediction markets often mirror the jury-and-televote split seen in Eurovision, where public sentiment and expert analysis diverge before a final outcome crystallises. In this case, the crowd-implied 0% probability aligns with the moneyline odds from DraftKings, which favoured Detroit at -118, and the run-line lean from Rotoworld Bet toward the Astros on the spread, yet the final boxscore confirmed Detroit’s dominance[1][5]. Such precedents show that when expert models and public odds converge on a single outcome, the market rarely leaves room for reversal once the event settles.

Traders should monitor official MLB announcements regarding game postponements or cancellations, though none apply here as the fixture has been completed. Recent coverage from NBC Sports confirms the Tigers’ -118 moneyline status and the 9.0-run over/under line, both of which preceded the final result[1][5]. With the settlement window ending on 3 July 2026, the market’s resolution is now fixed on the Tigers’ win, leaving no dependency on future scheduling or external dependencies.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.