Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
98% | 2% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
98% | 2% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 98% |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5) | 97% |
| Game 1 Winner | 93% |
| Game 2 Winner | 92% |
| Game 3 Winner | 92% |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5) | 80% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 64% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 63% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? | 62% |
| Game 4 Winner | 58% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 56% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 53% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 53% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 52% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 52% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 49% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 49% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 49% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 49% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 49% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 48% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 48% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? | 33% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 21% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 4% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 98% probability to lol: t1 vs furia esports (bo5) - mid-season invitational playoffs. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket round 1 match between T1 and FURIA Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 6 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve t…
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for LoL: T1 vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Which entertainment markets are available?
- Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
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