Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
77% | 23% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
77% | 23% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 77% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? | 77% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 77% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 71% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 64% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 64% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 64% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 62% |
| Match Winner | 60% |
| Game 1 Winner | 56% |
| Game 2 Winner | 56% |
| Game 3 Winner | 56% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 56% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 56% |
| Game 4 Winner | 54% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 54% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 52% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 5? | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 5? | 49% |
| Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) | 42% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 42% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 38% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 33% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 30% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 30% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 30% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 29% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 25% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 25% |
| Game Handicap: IG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) | 19% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 77% probability to lol: invictus gaming vs team we (bo5) - lpl playoffs. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Invictus Gaming and Team WE in the LPL Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 6, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET. This market will res…
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Which entertainment markets are available?
- Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- Who can trade Eurovision markets?
- Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
- Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
- Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
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