Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 95% |
| Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5) | 88% |
| Game 1 Winner | 84% |
| Game 2 Winner | 83% |
| Game 3 Winner | 83% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? | 73% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 70% |
| Game 4 Winner | 65% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 62% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 62% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? | 62% |
| Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5) | 61% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 59% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 59% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 59% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 55% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 54% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 49% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 49% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 49% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 49% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 40% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 10% |
Market context
Market consensus: 95% chance of lol: bilibili gaming vs lyon (bo5) - mid-season invitational playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between Bilibili Gaming and LYON in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 5 at 11:00PM ET…
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
- Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
- Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
- Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
- Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
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