Türkiye vs. United States - More Markets

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the final Group D match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, where the United States faces Türkiye in Los Angeles on Thursday, 25 June at 10:00 p.m. ET. This game determines whether the US secures a knockout berth, with Türkiye now the sole opponent capable of tying their points if they lose or draw against Paraguay. The 31% crowd-implied probability for “more markets” hinges on whether the match outcome triggers additional tiebreaker scenarios, such as goal differential or fair-play cards, which could extend the contest beyond a simple win-loss result.

Historically, comparable cases like Eurovision’s 50/50 jury-televote split or the Oscars’ preferential ballot for Best Picture illustrate how layered voting mechanisms can amplify uncertainty. In FIFA’s tiebreaker rules, head-to-head record is the primary decider, followed by goal difference, goals scored, and team conduct scores based on yellow and red cards. If teams remain tied after these, the latest FIFA World Rankings decide the outcome, with the US ranked No. 17 ahead of Türkiye’s No. 22. This precedent suggests that “more markets” could materialise if the match ends in a draw or narrow win, forcing reliance on secondary metrics.

Traders should monitor announcements regarding player suspensions, as four key US players—Folarin Balogun, Tyler Adams, Chris Richards, and Antonee Robinson—risk knockout-stage suspensions with another yellow card. Coach Mauricio Pochettino may limit their playing time to avoid this, altering the match’s competitive intensity. Reuters reports that Pochettino faces critical decisions ahead of the knockout stage, which begins 1 July in Santa Clara. Additionally, watch for live updates on goal differentials and fair-play cards, as these dependencies could trigger extended market activity. The match will be broadcast on FOX with English commentary, offering real-time data for traders to assess emerging scenarios.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.