Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ shots | 93% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots | 52% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 4+ shots | 52% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Armando González: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 1+ shots | 50% |
| César Huerta: 1+ shots | 50% |
| César Huerta: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Armando González: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Armando González: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Armando González: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Armando González: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Armando González: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Armando González: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Carlos Acevedo: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Moisés Ramírez: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Moisés Ramírez: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 1+ goals | 50% |
| César Huerta: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Armando González: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Armando González: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Armando González: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| César Huerta: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| César Huerta: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| César Huerta: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| César Huerta: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| César Huerta: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Armando González: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Armando González: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Armando González: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Julián Quiñones: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enner Valencia: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enner Valencia: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enner Valencia: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enner Valencia: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enner Valencia: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enner Valencia: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enner Valencia: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enner Valencia: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| César Huerta: 3+ shots | 50% |
| César Huerta: 4+ shots | 50% |
| César Huerta: 5+ shots | 50% |
| César Huerta: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Julián Quiñones: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Armando González: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Quiñones: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enner Valencia: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Enner Valencia: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Julián Quiñones: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Santiago Giménez: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| César Huerta: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Enner Valencia: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Alexis Vega: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Carlos Acevedo: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Carlos Acevedo: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Carlos Acevedo: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Moisés Ramírez: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Moisés Ramírez: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Enner Valencia: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Enner Valencia: 4+ shots | 47% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 2+ assists | 43% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ goals | 41% |
| Armando González: 2+ goals | 33% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 2+ shots | 27% |
| César Huerta: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Armando González: 2+ assists | 18% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ assists | 18% |
| Alexis Vega: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 2+ assists | 13% |
| César Huerta: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Alexis Vega: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Alexis Vega: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Armando González: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 2+ goals | 13% |
| César Huerta: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Enner Valencia: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Enner Valencia: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Enner Valencia: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Enner Valencia: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Enner Valencia: 2+ assists | 0% |
Market context
Mexico vs. Ecuador - Player Props — current market-implied probability: 100%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Mexico and Ecuador, scheduled for June 30 at 9:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Mexico vs. Ecuador - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Which entertainment markets are available?
- Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
- Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
- Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
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