Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots | 91% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots | 88% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots | 76% |
| Rayan: 1+ shots | 70% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots | 69% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots | 61% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ shots | 60% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals + assists | 54% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots | 54% |
| Endrick: 1+ shots | 54% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Casemiro: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Luiz Henrique: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Alisson: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Raphinha: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Danilo Santos: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Koki Ogawa: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Luiz Henrique: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ayase Ueda: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Casemiro: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Keito Nakamura: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Rayan: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Alisson: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Alisson: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Endrick: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Endrick: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Endrick: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Endrick: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Luiz Henrique: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Neymar Jr: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Raphinha: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Raphinha: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Koki Ogawa: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Koki Ogawa: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Luiz Henrique: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Luiz Henrique: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Keito Nakamura: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Koki Ogawa: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Koki Ogawa: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Neymar Jr: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Rayan: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots | 46% |
| Casemiro: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Ayase Ueda: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots | 45% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 4+ goals + assists | 45% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Daizen Maeda: 4+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals | 39% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots on target | 39% |
| Endrick: 2+ shots | 39% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Casemiro: 1+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Koki Ogawa: 2+ shots | 33% |
| Rayan: 1+ shots on target | 33% |
| Casemiro: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Rayan: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals | 30% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots on target | 29% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Luiz Henrique: 2+ shots | 29% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Alisson: 3+ saves | 28% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots | 27% |
| Endrick: 3+ shots | 27% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots | 27% |
| Luiz Henrique: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Rayan: 2+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots | 25% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Rayan: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Luiz Henrique: 5+ shots | 22% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Rayan: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Casemiro: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots on target | 20% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots | 20% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Danilo Santos: 3+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Koki Ogawa: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Daizen Maeda: 3+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Endrick: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Matheus Cunha: 5+ shots | 18% |
| Rayan: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Rayan: 3+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 5+ shots | 15% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals + assists | 15% |
| Rayan: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Casemiro: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Endrick: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 3+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Rayan: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Endrick: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Rayan: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Koki Ogawa: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Ayase Ueda: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Luiz Henrique: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots on target | 11% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Koki Ogawa: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Rayan: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Luiz Henrique: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Luiz Henrique: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Casemiro: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Neymar Jr: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Rayan: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Rayan: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 3+ goals | 9% |
| Ayase Ueda: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Neymar Jr: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 3+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Casemiro: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Casemiro: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Koki Ogawa: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Igor Thiago: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Raphinha: 1+ shots on target | 7% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Endrick: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Koki Ogawa: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Luiz Henrique: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Casemiro: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Rayan: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Koki Ogawa: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Endrick: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Raphinha: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Casemiro: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 2+ goals | 0% |
Market context
The Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 91% YES. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Brazil and Japan, scheduled for June 29 at 1:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Which entertainment markets are available?
- Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- Who can trade Eurovision markets?
- Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
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