Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO3) …

Name: Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs
Start: 2026-07-15T15:25:49.472Z
End: 2026-07-16T17:10:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	61%	39%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	61%	39%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Trade this market →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Trade this market →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
Game 2 Winner	61%
Game 1 Winner	56%
Match Winner	54%
Ends in Daytime	50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan	50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks	50%
Any Player Ultra Kill	50%
Any Player Rampage	50%
Ends in Daytime	50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan	50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks	50%
Any Player Ultra Kill	50%
Any Player Rampage	50%
Ends in Daytime	50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan	50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks	50%
Any Player Ultra Kill	50%
Any Player Rampage	50%
First Blood in Game 1?	50%
First Blood in Game 2?	50%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?	50%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?	50%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?	50%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2?	50%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1?	50%
Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1?	50%
Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 1?	50%
Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 1?	50%
O/U 2.5 Games	40%
Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)	25%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Yandex (+1.5)	0%

Market context

Market consensus: 61% chance of dota 2: team yandex vs team spirit (bo3) - esports world cup playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Dota 2 Quarterfinal 3 match between Team Yandex and Team Spirit in the Esports World Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 17 at 7:00AM ET. This mar…

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?: Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
When do award markets resolve?: After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
How accurate are award predictions?: Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
What was the top Oscar 2025 market?: Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?: Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.

Alex ChenPrediction Market Analystand

Jordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

Trade Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO3) - Esports W… on Oscar Predictions 2026

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

Open live market →

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO3) - Esports W… on Oscar Predictions 2026

Related live markets

World Cup Winner

Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

World Cup: Golden Boot Winner

Fed Decision in July?

LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group C

LoL: G2 Esports vs AG.AL (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group A