Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
99% | 1% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
99% | 1% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NEW VISION (-9.5) vs ex-RUSTEC (+9.5) | 99% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NEW VISION (-6.5) vs ex-RUSTEC (+6.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Winner | 66% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 61% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NEW VISION (-3.5) vs ex-RUSTEC (+3.5) | 55% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ex-RUSTEC (-3.5) vs NEW VISION (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: ex-RUSTEC (-3.5) vs NEW VISION (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map Handicap: NV (-1.5) vs ex-RUSTEC (+1.5) | 50% |
| Match Winner | 46% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ex-RUSTEC (-6.5) vs NEW VISION (+6.5) | 45% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ex-RUSTEC (-3.5) vs NEW VISION (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: ex-RUSTEC (-1.5) vs NEW VISION (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Counter-Strike: ex-RUSTEC vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #6 Group Stage — current market-implied probability: 99%. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 5 match between ex-RUSTEC and NEW VISION in the CCT Europe Series #6 Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 4 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: ex-RUSTEC vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #6 Group Stage. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Which entertainment markets are available?
- Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- Who can trade Eurovision markets?
- Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
- Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
- Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
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