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Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame

Snapshot for "Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame": award probabilities, show odds, every CTA to Oscar Predictions 2026.

O/U 27.5 93% Spread -0.5 92% Spread -1.5 92% Spread -2.5 91% Volume: $108K Liquidity: $2.3M Closes: 6 Sept 2026
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Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 93% 7% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 93% 7% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
O/U 27.593%
Spread -0.592%
Spread -1.592%
Spread -2.591%
O/U 29.590%
Spread -3.589%
Spread -4.587%
Spread -5.586%
O/U 31.585%
Spread -6.584%
O/U 33.584%
Spread -7.580%
Spread -8.579%
O/U 35.579%
Wisconsin O/U 6.579%
Notre Dame O/U 25.578%
Notre Dame O/U 26.577%
Spread -10.576%
O/U 37.575%
Spread -13.572%
Notre Dame O/U 27.572%
O/U 39.570%
2H Spread -5.568%
Spread -14.567%
Notre Dame O/U 28.567%
2H Spread -4.567%
Wisconsin O/U 7.566%
Notre Dame O/U 29.566%
Spread -16.565%
2H Spread -6.564%
Wisconsin O/U 9.564%
O/U 41.563%
1H Spread -9.563%
1H Spread -8.563%
Notre Dame O/U 30.562%
Spread -17.561%
3Q Spread -2.560%
O/U 43.559%
2Q Spread -6.557%
Spread -20.556%
4Q Spread -2.556%
1H Spread -10.555%
Notre Dame O/U 31.555%
Notre Dame O/U 32.555%
1Q Spread -6.554%
Wisconsin O/U 10.554%
Wisconsin 1H O/U 6.554%
O/U 45.553%
2H Spread -7.553%
Notre Dame O/U 33.553%
2H Spread -8.552%
3Q Spread -6.552%
2H Spread -9.551%
1Q Spread -4.551%
1Q Moneyline51%
2Q Spread -9.551%
2Q Moneyline51%
3Q Spread -5.551%
4Q Spread -1.551%
4Q Spread -5.551%
Notre Dame 1H O/U 15.551%
Notre Dame 1H O/U 19.551%
Wisconsin 1H O/U 4.551%
Wisconsin 2H O/U 4.551%
Notre Dame 2H O/U 12.551%
Notre Dame 2H O/U 16.551%
Wisconsin O/U 1.551%
Notre Dame O/U 4.551%
Wisconsin O/U 12.551%
Notre Dame 1H O/U 21.551%
Notre Dame 2H O/U 13.551%
Notre Dame 2H O/U 15.551%
Wisconsin O/U 0.551%
Wisconsin O/U 1.551%
Notre Dame O/U 1.551%
Notre Dame O/U 2.551%
4Q Spread -6.551%
3Q Spread -8.551%
4Q Spread -8.551%
3Q Spread -0.551%
4Q Spread -0.551%
Notre Dame 1H O/U 18.551%
Wisconsin 2H O/U 5.551%
Cam Williams: Anytime Touchdown51%
Spread -21.550%
2H Moneyline50%
1H Spread -11.550%
1H Spread -12.550%
1Q Spread -5.550%
1Q Spread -8.550%
2Q Spread -5.550%
2Q Spread -8.550%
3Q Spread -1.550%
3Q Spread -3.550%
3Q Moneyline50%
4Q Moneyline50%
Wisconsin 1H O/U 8.550%
Wisconsin 2H O/U 6.550%
Wisconsin 2H O/U 8.550%
Notre Dame 2H O/U 14.550%
O/U 46.550%
Nolan James Jr.: Anytime Touchdown50%
James Flanigan: Anytime Touchdown50%
Notre Dame 2H O/U 11.550%
1Q Spread -3.550%
3Q Spread -7.550%
Wisconsin O/U 2.550%
Wisconsin O/U 3.550%
Notre Dame O/U 0.550%
Notre Dame O/U 3.550%
2Q Spread -4.550%
Notre Dame 1H O/U 20.550%
Notre Dame 1H O/U 22.550%
Wisconsin 2H O/U 7.550%
Wisconsin 2H O/U 9.550%
1H Spread -13.549%
3Q Spread -4.549%
4Q Spread -3.549%
4Q Spread -4.549%
Notre Dame O/U 34.549%
Notre Dame 1H O/U 17.548%
O/U 47.546%
Wisconsin O/U 13.545%
2H Spread -10.544%
2Q Spread -7.543%
Spread -24.541%
2H Spread -11.541%
Notre Dame O/U 35.541%
O/U 49.540%
Notre Dame O/U 36.539%
Aneyas Williams: Anytime Touchdown39%
Notre Dame O/U 37.538%
1H Spread -14.538%
Spread -27.536%
1H Spread -15.536%
O/U 51.535%
1H Spread -16.535%
Wisconsin O/U 15.534%
1Q Spread -7.532%
O/U 53.531%
Wisconsin O/U 16.531%
Notre Dame O/U 39.531%
Notre Dame O/U 38.530%
Notre Dame O/U 40.528%
O/U 55.526%
Kedren Young: Anytime Touchdown26%
Spread -31.524%
Wisconsin O/U 18.524%
Wisconsin O/U 19.523%
Jordan Faison: Anytime Touchdown23%
4Q Spread -7.523%
O/U 57.522%
Spread -34.519%
Cooper Flanagan: Anytime Touchdown19%
Colton Joseph: Anytime Touchdown18%
CJ Carr: Anytime Touchdown17%
Abu Sama III: Anytime Touchdown17%
O/U 59.516%
O/U 61.516%
Jaden Greathouse: Anytime Touchdown15%
Mylan Graham: Anytime Touchdown15%
Micah Gilbert: Anytime Touchdown15%
Darrion Dupree: Anytime Touchdown14%
O/U 63.512%
1H Moneyline12%
Eugene Hilton Jr.: Anytime Touchdown11%
O/U 65.510%
Chris Brooks Jr.: Anytime Touchdown9%
Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame8%
O/U 67.58%
Jacob Harris: Anytime Touchdown8%
Jaylon Domingeaux: Anytime Touchdown8%
Matt Jeffery: Anytime Touchdown8%
Elijah Burress: Anytime Touchdown8%
Tyrell Henry: Anytime Touchdown8%
Malachi Coleman: Anytime Touchdown7%
Shamar Rigby: Anytime Touchdown5%
Ryan Schwendeman: Anytime Touchdown4%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 93% probability to wisconsin vs. notre dame. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 6 at 7:30PM ET: If Wisconsin wins, the market will resolve to "Wisconsin". If Notre Dame wins, the market will resolve to "Notre Dame". I…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices O/U 27.5 at 93% for "Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame".

O/U 27.5 93% Other 7%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $108K.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?
Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
When do award markets resolve?
After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

Trade Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame on Oscar Predictions 2026

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