Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Utah State 1H O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Utah State 1H O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Utah State 1H O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| Spread -4.5 | 87% |
| Spread -5.5 | 73% |
| Spread -6.5 | 73% |
| Spread -7.5 | 70% |
| Spread -1.5 | 66% |
| Spread -2.5 | 65% |
| Spread -3.5 | 58% |
| Spread -8.5 | 53% |
| Utah State O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Utah State O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Utah State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Utah State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| O/U 67.5 | 50% |
| O/U 71.5 | 50% |
| O/U 73.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Washington O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 41.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 47.5 | 50% |
| Utah State O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Utah State O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Utah State O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Utah State O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Utah State O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Utah State O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 37.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 43.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 46.5 | 50% |
| Utah State O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Utah State O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Utah State O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Utah State O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Utah State O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Washington 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Washington 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Washington 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Utah State 2H O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Utah State 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Utah State 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Trey Cooley: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Demond Williams Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Dezmen Roebuck: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Rashid Williams: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Javen Jacobs: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Eli Wood: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Decker DeGraaf: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Javon Robinson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chris Lawson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Anthony Garcia: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Demick Starling: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kache Kaio: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Washington 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Washington 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Washington 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Limar: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Christian Moss: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| McCae Hillstead: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Sesi Vailahi: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Noah White: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Washington 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Utah State 2H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Utah State 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Utah State 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Spread -28.5 | 50% |
| Spread -29.5 | 50% |
| Spread -35.5 | 50% |
| Spread -36.5 | 50% |
| Spread -42.5 | 50% |
| Spread -44.5 | 50% |
| Spread -48.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -24.5 | 49% |
| Spread -38.5 | 49% |
| O/U 55.5 | 48% |
| Spread -11.5 | 48% |
| Spread -33.5 | 48% |
| Spread -45.5 | 48% |
| O/U 75.5 | 47% |
| Spread -41.5 | 47% |
| Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| O/U 56.5 | 45% |
| O/U 69.5 | 44% |
| O/U 35.5 | 43% |
| Spread -30.5 | 43% |
| Spread -16.5 | 40% |
| O/U 37.5 | 40% |
| Spread -13.5 | 39% |
| O/U 59.5 | 37% |
| O/U 43.5 | 36% |
| O/U 39.5 | 35% |
| O/U 41.5 | 35% |
| O/U 47.5 | 35% |
| O/U 49.5 | 34% |
| O/U 53.5 | 34% |
| Spread -19.5 | 34% |
| Spread -22.5 | 34% |
| O/U 54.5 | 30% |
| Spread -26.5 | 30% |
| Spread -25.5 | 30% |
| O/U 51.5 | 30% |
| Spread -32.5 | 30% |
| Spread -27.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 27% |
| Spread -14.5 | 22% |
| Spread -23.5 | 21% |
| Spread -17.5 | 18% |
| O/U 45.5 | 18% |
| Spread -20.5 | 17% |
| Spread -21.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 10% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 10% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 10% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| O/U 63.5 | 9% |
| O/U 57.5 | 8% |
| Utah State vs. Washington | 7% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 0% |
| 1H Moneyline | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -11.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 0% |
| Washington 1H O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| Washington 1H O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Washington 1H O/U 24.5 | 0% |
| Utah State 1H O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| Utah State 1H O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Washington 1H O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Washington 1H O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Washington 1H O/U 25.5 | 0% |
| Utah State 1H O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Washington 1H O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 26.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 32.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 35.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -18.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to utah state vs. washington. In the upcoming college football game between Utah State and Washington, scheduled for September 12 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Utah State" if Utah State win the game. This market will …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $173K.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Utah State vs. Washington. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- Who can trade Eurovision markets?
- Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
- Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
- Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
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