Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 33.5 | 93% |
| O/U 35.5 | 90% |
| O/U 37.5 | 88% |
| O/U 39.5 | 84% |
| O/U 41.5 | 79% |
| Florida State O/U 18.5 | 78% |
| O/U 43.5 | 76% |
| SMU O/U 21.5 | 74% |
| Florida State O/U 19.5 | 74% |
| O/U 45.5 | 73% |
| SMU O/U 22.5 | 73% |
| Florida State O/U 20.5 | 70% |
| O/U 47.5 | 67% |
| Florida State O/U 21.5 | 66% |
| Florida State O/U 22.5 | 65% |
| O/U 49.5 | 63% |
| SMU O/U 24.5 | 63% |
| SMU O/U 25.5 | 62% |
| Florida State O/U 23.5 | 60% |
| O/U 51.5 | 59% |
| SMU vs. Florida State | 57% |
| O/U 52.5 | 56% |
| Spread -0.5 | 56% |
| O/U 53.5 | 55% |
| Spread -1.5 | 55% |
| 1H Moneyline | 55% |
| SMU 1H O/U 13.5 | 55% |
| Florida State O/U 24.5 | 54% |
| Florida State O/U 1.5 | 54% |
| SMU O/U 27.5 | 53% |
| Florida State 1H O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| Florida State O/U 25.5 | 53% |
| O/U 54.5 | 53% |
| Spread: SMU (-2.5) | 52% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 52% |
| Florida State 1H O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| SMU O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 51% |
| SMU 1H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| SMU 2H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| SMU 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Florida State 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Florida State 2H O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| Quintrevion Wisner: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Christian Rhodes: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Jalen Hale: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Desirrio Riles: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| SMU O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Florida State 1H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| SMU 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| SMU 2H O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| SMU 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| SMU 1H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Florida State 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| SMU 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| SMU 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Dramekco Green: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Isaiah Robertson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| SMU 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| SMU 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| Florida State O/U 26.5 | 49% |
| SMU O/U 28.5 | 49% |
| O/U 55.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 46% |
| SMU O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 45% |
| Florida State O/U 27.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 43% |
| SMU O/U 30.5 | 43% |
| O/U 57.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| Spread -4.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| Florida State O/U 28.5 | 40% |
| Spread -6.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| Florida State O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Florida State O/U 29.5 | 38% |
| O/U 59.5 | 37% |
| Spread -34.5 | 36% |
| SMU O/U 31.5 | 36% |
| Florida State O/U 30.5 | 35% |
| Florida State O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| SMU O/U 33.5 | 33% |
| O/U 61.5 | 32% |
| Kendrick Raphael: Anytime Touchdown | 32% |
| SMU O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Ousmane Kromah: Anytime Touchdown | 29% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| Florida State O/U 32.5 | 28% |
| Florida State O/U 31.5 | 28% |
| SMU O/U 34.5 | 28% |
| Spread -31.5 | 27% |
| O/U 63.5 | 27% |
| Samuel Singleton Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 26% |
| Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| Derrick McFall: Anytime Touchdown | 25% |
| O/U 65.5 | 24% |
| Ashton Daniels: Anytime Touchdown | 22% |
| Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| Duce Robinson: Anytime Touchdown | 21% |
| O/U 67.5 | 20% |
| Yamir Knight: Anytime Touchdown | 20% |
| SMU O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| Spread -14.5 | 18% |
| Micahi Danzy: Anytime Touchdown | 18% |
| Yannick Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 18% |
| O/U 69.5 | 17% |
| Spread -16.5 | 16% |
| Jalen Cooper: Anytime Touchdown | 16% |
| Theo Melin Ohrstrom: Anytime Touchdown | 16% |
| Randy Pittman Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 16% |
| Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| Kevin Jennings: Anytime Touchdown | 14% |
| Jayvan Boggs: Anytime Touchdown | 14% |
| Landen Thomas: Anytime Touchdown | 14% |
| O/U 71.5 | 13% |
| Florida State O/U 3.5 | 12% |
| Spread -20.5 | 11% |
| O/U 73.5 | 11% |
| Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| Spread -24.5 | 7% |
| Spread -27.5 | 5% |
Market context
SMU vs. Florida State — current market-implied probability: 93%. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 7 at 7:30PM ET: If SMU wins, the market will resolve to "SMU". If Florida State wins, the market will resolve to "Florida State". If the …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $87K.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for SMU vs. Florida State. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
- Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
- Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
- Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
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