Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spread -4.5 | 95% |
| O/U 34.5 | 95% |
| Spread -23.5 | 95% |
| Spread -7.5 | 94% |
| O/U 36.5 | 94% |
| Spread -26.5 | 94% |
| Spread -24.5 | 93% |
| Spread -13.5 | 92% |
| Spread -16.5 | 92% |
| Spread -5.5 | 91% |
| Spread -17.5 | 91% |
| Spread -27.5 | 90% |
| O/U 38.5 | 89% |
| O/U 40.5 | 89% |
| Spread -29.5 | 87% |
| Spread -30.5 | 86% |
| Spread -20.5 | 85% |
| O/U 42.5 | 84% |
| Spread -31.5 | 83% |
| O/U 44.5 | 80% |
| Spread -33.5 | 80% |
| Spread -34.5 | 78% |
| O/U 46.5 | 76% |
| Spread -35.5 | 74% |
| Rice O/U 1.5 | 73% |
| Spread -36.5 | 73% |
| Rice O/U 0.5 | 73% |
| Spread -14.5 | 72% |
| Rice O/U 2.5 | 72% |
| Notre Dame O/U 42.5 | 72% |
| Notre Dame O/U 43.5 | 71% |
| Spread -37.5 | 71% |
| Spread -10.5 | 68% |
| O/U 48.5 | 68% |
| Spread -38.5 | 67% |
| Spread -39.5 | 65% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 65% |
| O/U 50.5 | 64% |
| Spread -40.5 | 64% |
| 1H Spread -22.5 | 63% |
| Notre Dame O/U 45.5 | 63% |
| Spread -0.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -23.5 | 62% |
| Notre Dame O/U 46.5 | 62% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 62% |
| Spread -41.5 | 62% |
| Spread -6.5 | 60% |
| Spread -8.5 | 60% |
| Spread -21.5 | 60% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 59% |
| O/U 52.5 | 56% |
| O/U 53.5 | 56% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 56% |
| Notre Dame O/U 48.5 | 56% |
| Spread -42.5 | 56% |
| O/U 54.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -24.5 | 55% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 54% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 54% |
| Spread -43.5 | 54% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 53% |
| 2H Spread -18.5 | 53% |
| Spread -44.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -26.5 | 52% |
| 1Q Spread -11.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -19.5 | 52% |
| Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -25.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| Notre Dame O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Micah Gilbert: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Rice O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Rice O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Rice O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Rice O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Rice O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Rice O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame 1H O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame 1H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| Rice 1H O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Rice 2H O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Rice 2H O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Aneyas Williams: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jordan Faison: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Nolan James Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| CJ Carr: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Cooper Flanagan: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kedren Young: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jaden Greathouse: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Mylan Graham: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| James Flanigan: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tyvonn Byars: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jacurri Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Braylen Walker: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Payton Matthews: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Elijah Burress: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Matt Jeffery: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| DAndre Hardeman Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Davis Lane Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Ben Grice: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Carson Morgan: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Max Mosey: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 37.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Rice 1H O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Rice 1H O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Rice 1H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Rice 2H O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Rice 2H O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Rice 2H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame 2H O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame O/U 49.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -27.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 49% |
| Rice O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Spread -45.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| Notre Dame 1H O/U 30.5 | 46% |
| Notre Dame O/U 51.5 | 46% |
| O/U 56.5 | 45% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 45% |
| Spread -46.5 | 45% |
| Spread -47.5 | 44% |
| Rice O/U 6.5 | 44% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 43% |
| Rice 1H O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 41% |
| O/U 58.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -16.5 | 40% |
| Notre Dame O/U 52.5 | 39% |
| Spread -48.5 | 39% |
| Notre Dame O/U 54.5 | 38% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -28.5 | 36% |
| Spread -49.5 | 36% |
| O/U 60.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -29.5 | 35% |
| Notre Dame O/U 55.5 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -22.5 | 34% |
| Spread -50.5 | 34% |
| Rice O/U 0.5 | 33% |
| Spread -51.5 | 31% |
| O/U 62.5 | 29% |
| Spread -52.5 | 28% |
| Rice O/U 8.5 | 26% |
| Rice O/U 7.5 | 26% |
| O/U 64.5 | 24% |
| Rice O/U 9.5 | 24% |
| Spread -54.5 | 23% |
| O/U 66.5 | 18% |
| Spread -57.5 | 17% |
| Spread -58.5 | 17% |
| O/U 68.5 | 16% |
| Rice O/U 11.5 | 14% |
| Rice O/U 10.5 | 14% |
| Rice O/U 12.5 | 13% |
| O/U 70.5 | 12% |
| Spread -61.5 | 12% |
| O/U 72.5 | 11% |
| Spread -60.5 | 11% |
| O/U 74.5 | 9% |
| Spread -64.5 | 6% |
| Rice vs. Notre Dame | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 95% chance of rice vs. notre dame. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming college football game between Rice and Notre Dame, scheduled for September 12 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Rice" if Rice win the game. This market wil…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $115K.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Rice vs. Notre Dame. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
- Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
- Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
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