Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spread -24.5 | 95% |
| Spread -7.5 | 94% |
| O/U 34.5 | 94% |
| O/U 36.5 | 91% |
| Spread -5.5 | 90% |
| Spread -27.5 | 90% |
| Spread -3.5 | 89% |
| Spread -10.5 | 89% |
| O/U 38.5 | 89% |
| O/U 40.5 | 87% |
| Spread -0.5 | 85% |
| Spread -17.5 | 82% |
| Spread -16.5 | 81% |
| Spread -31.5 | 81% |
| O/U 42.5 | 81% |
| Spread -4.5 | 79% |
| O/U 44.5 | 78% |
| Spread -34.5 | 77% |
| Spread -6.5 | 75% |
| Spread -21.5 | 75% |
| Spread -8.5 | 74% |
| Spread -13.5 | 74% |
| Spread -20.5 | 74% |
| O/U 46.5 | 74% |
| Spread -14.5 | 72% |
| Virginia O/U 42.5 | 72% |
| Virginia O/U 43.5 | 71% |
| Virginia O/U 44.5 | 69% |
| O/U 48.5 | 67% |
| Norfolk State O/U 1.5 | 65% |
| O/U 50.5 | 62% |
| Virginia O/U 45.5 | 62% |
| Virginia O/U 46.5 | 62% |
| Virginia O/U 47.5 | 61% |
| O/U 52.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -23.5 | 57% |
| O/U 53.5 | 56% |
| Spread -43.5 | 55% |
| Virginia O/U 48.5 | 55% |
| Spread -44.5 | 54% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 54% |
| O/U 54.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -22.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -24.5 | 52% |
| Virginia O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -26.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -11.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -11.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| Virginia O/U 49.5 | 51% |
| Norfolk State O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Norfolk State O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Norfolk State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Norfolk State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Virginia O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Virginia O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Virginia O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -25.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Connor Cox: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Dylan Cope: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Spread -45.5 | 50% |
| Norfolk State 1H O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Norfolk State 1H O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Virginia 1H O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Virginia 1H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| Virginia 1H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -27.5 | 49% |
| Virginia O/U 50.5 | 49% |
| O/U 56.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 46% |
| Virginia O/U 51.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 45% |
| 2H Moneyline | 41% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 41% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 41% |
| Norfolk State O/U 4.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 41% |
| O/U 58.5 | 40% |
| Virginia O/U 52.5 | 40% |
| Virginia O/U 53.5 | 40% |
| Virginia O/U 54.5 | 38% |
| Xavier Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 37% |
| O/U 60.5 | 35% |
| Jekail Middlebrook: Anytime Touchdown | 35% |
| Beau Pribula: Anytime Touchdown | 35% |
| Virginia O/U 55.5 | 34% |
| O/U 62.5 | 28% |
| Virginia O/U 56.5 | 28% |
| O/U 64.5 | 25% |
| Peyton Lewis: Anytime Touchdown | 25% |
| Xay Davis: Anytime Touchdown | 24% |
| Kameron Courtney: Anytime Touchdown | 22% |
| Jacquon Gibson: Anytime Touchdown | 20% |
| Norfolk State O/U 7.5 | 19% |
| O/U 66.5 | 18% |
| Dashawn Martin: Anytime Touchdown | 18% |
| O/U 68.5 | 17% |
| Dakota Twitty: Anytime Touchdown | 17% |
| O/U 70.5 | 13% |
| O/U 72.5 | 10% |
| Norfolk State O/U 10.5 | 9% |
| O/U 74.5 | 8% |
| Norfolk State vs. Virginia | 1% |
Market context
The Norfolk State vs. Virginia prediction market currently prices this outcome at 95% YES. In the upcoming college football game between Norfolk State and Virginia, scheduled for September 11 at 7:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Norfolk State" if Norfolk State win the game. This marke…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $106K.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Norfolk State vs. Virginia. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Which entertainment markets are available?
- Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
- Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
- Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
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