Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spread -10.5 | 95% |
| Spread -14.5 | 91% |
| Spread -13.5 | 90% |
| Spread -16.5 | 88% |
| Spread -17.5 | 88% |
| O/U 35.5 | 87% |
| Spread -20.5 | 82% |
| Spread -21.5 | 79% |
| Spread -24.5 | 72% |
| O/U 41.5 | 70% |
| Spread -27.5 | 66% |
| 1H Spread -18.5 | 59% |
| Spread -30.5 | 55% |
| Spread -6.5 | 55% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 55% |
| Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| O/U 47.5 | 53% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 53% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 53% |
| Spread: Florida State (-31.5) | 52% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 52% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| O/U 37.5 | 50% |
| O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| O/U 43.5 | 50% |
| O/U 45.5 | 50% |
| O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| O/U 67.5 | 50% |
| O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| O/U 73.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 41.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 47.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Florida State 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 1H O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 1H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| Spread -32.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 45.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 37.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 43.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 46.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 46% |
| 1H Moneyline | 45% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 41% |
| O/U 51.5 | 40% |
| O/U 53.5 | 38% |
| O/U 52.5 | 34% |
| O/U 55.5 | 26% |
| O/U 59.5 | 18% |
| O/U 65.5 | 13% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 10% |
| O/U 71.5 | 3% |
| New Mexico State vs. Florida State | 2% |
Market context
The New Mexico State vs. Florida State prediction market currently prices this outcome at 95% YES. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for August 29 at 7:00PM ET: If New Mexico State wins, the market will resolve to "New Mexico State". If Florida State wins, the market will resolve to …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $121K.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for New Mexico State vs. Florida State. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Which entertainment markets are available?
- Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
- Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
- Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
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