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Northern Illinois vs. Iowa

How the prediction markets are pricing "Northern Illinois vs. Iowa" — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Spread: Iowa (-31.5) 100% Spread -0.5 100% Spread -1.5 100% Spread -2.5 100% Volume: $67K Closes: 5 Sept 2026
Open live market →
Northern Illinois vs. Iowa

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Spread: Iowa (-31.5)100%
Spread -0.5100%
Spread -1.5100%
Spread -2.5100%
Spread -3.5100%
Spread -4.5100%
Spread -5.5100%
Spread -6.5100%
Spread -7.5100%
Spread -8.5100%
Spread -10.5100%
Spread -13.5100%
Spread -14.5100%
Spread -16.5100%
Spread -17.5100%
Spread -20.5100%
Spread -21.5100%
Spread -24.5100%
Spread -27.5100%
Spread -34.5100%
O/U 25.5100%
O/U 27.5100%
O/U 29.5100%
O/U 31.5100%
O/U 33.5100%
O/U 35.5100%
O/U 37.5100%
O/U 39.5100%
1H Spread -15.5100%
1H Spread -16.5100%
1H Spread -17.5100%
1H Spread -18.5100%
1H Spread -19.5100%
1Q Spread -5.5100%
1Q Spread -6.5100%
1Q Spread -7.5100%
1Q Spread -8.5100%
1Q Spread -9.5100%
2Q Spread -8.5100%
2Q Spread -9.5100%
2Q Spread -10.5100%
2Q Spread -11.5100%
2Q Spread -12.5100%
3Q Spread -4.5100%
3Q Spread -5.5100%
3Q Spread -6.5100%
Iowa O/U 31.5100%
Iowa O/U 34.5100%
Iowa O/U 37.5100%
Iowa 1H O/U 18.5100%
Iowa 1H O/U 20.5100%
Iowa 1H O/U 22.5100%
1H Spread -20.5100%
1Q Spread -10.5100%
Kamari Moulton: Anytime Touchdown100%
Xavier Williams: Anytime Touchdown100%
Tony Diaz: Anytime Touchdown100%
2H Spread -4.5100%
2H Spread -5.5100%
2H Spread -6.5100%
4Q Moneyline50%
Iowa O/U 4.550%
Jeremy Hecklinski: Anytime Touchdown50%
Evan James: Anytime Touchdown50%
Hank Brown: Anytime Touchdown50%
Northern Illinois vs. Iowa0%
O/U 45.50%
O/U 46.50%
O/U 44.50%
O/U 41.50%
O/U 43.50%
O/U 47.50%
O/U 49.50%
O/U 51.50%
O/U 53.50%
O/U 55.50%
O/U 57.50%
O/U 59.50%
O/U 61.50%
O/U 63.50%
O/U 65.50%
2H Moneyline0%
2H Spread -13.50%
2H Spread -14.50%
2H Spread -15.50%
2H Spread -16.50%
2H Spread -17.50%
1Q Moneyline0%
2Q Moneyline0%
3Q Spread -7.50%
3Q Spread -8.50%
3Q Moneyline0%
4Q Spread -4.50%
4Q Spread -5.50%
4Q Spread -6.50%
4Q Spread -7.50%
4Q Spread -8.50%
Iowa O/U 40.50%
Iowa O/U 43.50%
Northern Illinois O/U 1.50%
Northern Illinois O/U 4.50%
Northern Illinois O/U 7.50%
Northern Illinois O/U 10.50%
Northern Illinois O/U 13.50%
Northern Illinois 1H O/U 0.50%
Northern Illinois 1H O/U 2.50%
Northern Illinois 1H O/U 4.50%
Iowa 2H O/U 14.50%
Iowa 2H O/U 16.50%
Iowa 2H O/U 18.50%
Northern Illinois 2H O/U 0.50%
Northern Illinois 2H O/U 2.50%
2H Spread -10.50%
2H Spread -11.50%
2H Spread -12.50%
1H Moneyline0%
4Q Spread -9.50%
Northern Illinois O/U 0.50%
L.J. Phillips Jr.: Anytime Touchdown0%
Reece Vander Zee: Anytime Touchdown0%
DJ Vonnahme: Anytime Touchdown0%
Telly Johnson Jr.: Anytime Touchdown0%
Taron Dickens: Anytime Touchdown0%
Addison Ostrenga: Anytime Touchdown0%
DeAree Rogers: Anytime Touchdown0%
Elijah Porter: Anytime Touchdown0%
Dayton Howard: Anytime Touchdown0%
Cam Thompson: Anytime Touchdown0%
Romelo Ware: Anytime Touchdown0%
Jason Fowler: Anytime Touchdown0%
George Dimopoulos: Anytime Touchdown0%
Rickey Taylor Jr.: Anytime Touchdown0%
Glen Weber: Anytime Touchdown0%
2H Spread -7.50%
2H Spread -8.50%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, northern illinois vs. iowa stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 5 at 4:15PM ET: If Northern Illinois wins, the market will resolve to "Northern Illinois". If Iowa wins, the market w…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices Spread: Iowa (-31.5) at 100% for "Northern Illinois vs. Iowa".

Spread: Iowa (-31.5) 100% Other 0%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $67K.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Northern Illinois vs. Iowa. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?
Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
When do award markets resolve?
After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
How accurate are award predictions?
Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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