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Memphis vs. UNLV Runnin'

Snapshot for "Memphis vs. UNLV Runnin'": award probabilities, show odds, every CTA to Oscar Predictions 2026.

Spread -0.5 60% Spread -2.5 57% Spread -1.5 56% O/U 36.5 56% Volume: $371K Liquidity: $1.4M Closes: 30 Aug 2026
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Memphis vs. UNLV Runnin'

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 60% 40% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 60% 40% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Spread -0.560%
Spread -2.557%
Spread -1.556%
O/U 36.556%
UNLV Runnin' 2H O/U 14.551%
1H Moneyline50%
Spread -8.550%
Spread -31.550%
O/U 42.550%
O/U 44.550%
O/U 48.550%
O/U 50.550%
O/U 54.550%
O/U 66.550%
O/U 68.550%
1H Spread -1.550%
1H Spread -5.550%
1Q Spread -0.550%
1Q Spread -1.550%
1Q Spread -2.550%
1Q Moneyline50%
2Q Spread -0.550%
2Q Spread -1.550%
2Q Spread -2.550%
2Q Moneyline50%
3Q Spread -0.550%
3Q Spread -1.550%
3Q Spread -2.550%
3Q Moneyline50%
4Q Spread -0.550%
4Q Spread -1.550%
4Q Spread -2.550%
Memphis O/U 20.550%
Memphis O/U 23.550%
Memphis O/U 26.550%
Memphis O/U 29.550%
Memphis O/U 32.550%
UNLV Runnin' O/U 24.550%
UNLV Runnin' O/U 27.550%
UNLV Runnin' O/U 30.550%
UNLV Runnin' O/U 33.550%
UNLV Runnin' O/U 36.550%
2H Spread -0.550%
2H Spread -1.550%
2H Spread -2.550%
2H Spread -3.550%
2H Moneyline50%
Memphis 1H O/U 11.550%
Memphis 1H O/U 13.550%
Memphis 1H O/U 15.550%
UNLV Runnin' 1H O/U 12.550%
UNLV Runnin' 1H O/U 14.550%
UNLV Runnin' 1H O/U 16.550%
UNLV Runnin' 2H O/U 12.550%
UNLV Runnin' 2H O/U 16.550%
Memphis 2H O/U 11.550%
Memphis 2H O/U 13.550%
Memphis 2H O/U 15.550%
Memphis O/U 19.550%
Memphis O/U 22.550%
Memphis O/U 25.550%
Memphis O/U 28.550%
Memphis O/U 31.550%
2Q Spread -3.550%
Memphis 1H O/U 10.550%
Memphis 1H O/U 12.550%
Memphis 1H O/U 14.550%
UNLV Runnin' O/U 23.550%
UNLV Runnin' O/U 26.550%
UNLV Runnin' O/U 29.550%
UNLV Runnin' O/U 32.550%
UNLV Runnin' O/U 35.550%
O/U 38.549%
4Q Moneyline49%
Spread -34.547%
Spread -3.546%
O/U 40.546%
Spread -4.544%
1H Spread -2.544%
Memphis vs. UNLV Runnin'42%
Spread: UNLV Runnin' (-5.5)42%
Spread -6.540%
1H Spread -4.537%
1H Spread -3.533%
Spread -7.531%
O/U 46.527%
Spread -10.526%
O/U 62.523%
Spread -13.521%
Spread -14.518%
Spread -16.516%
Spread -17.514%
O/U 52.514%
O/U 72.514%
Spread -20.512%
O/U 74.511%
O/U 55.511%
O/U 56.59%
O/U 64.59%
O/U 58.58%
Spread -21.57%
O/U 60.57%
Spread -24.56%
Spread -27.55%
O/U 76.54%
O/U 70.53%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 60% YES probability for Memphis vs. UNLV Runnin'. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for August 29 at 10:00PM ET: If Memphis wins, the market will resolve to "Memphis". If UNLV Runnin' wins, the market will resolve to "UNLV Runnin'". If…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices Spread -0.5 at 60% for "Memphis vs. UNLV Runnin'".

Spread -0.5 60% Other 40%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $371K.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Memphis vs. UNLV Runnin'. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?
Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
Who can trade Eurovision markets?
Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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