Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 33.5 | 92% |
| O/U 35.5 | 92% |
| O/U 37.5 | 89% |
| Spread -7.5 | 87% |
| O/U 39.5 | 87% |
| O/U 41.5 | 87% |
| Spread -10.5 | 84% |
| Spread -11.5 | 83% |
| Spread -13.5 | 81% |
| O/U 43.5 | 78% |
| Spread -14.5 | 77% |
| Spread -17.5 | 73% |
| O/U 45.5 | 73% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 72% |
| Spread -19.5 | 68% |
| O/U 47.5 | 68% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 67% |
| Spread -20.5 | 66% |
| O/U 49.5 | 64% |
| Spread -21.5 | 62% |
| Spread -22.5 | 62% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 61% |
| Spread -23.5 | 57% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 57% |
| O/U 51.5 | 56% |
| Illinois 1H O/U 6.5 | 56% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 54% |
| Spread -24.5 | 53% |
| O/U 53.5 | 53% |
| Spread -25.5 | 52% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 52% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| Illinois O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Illinois O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Illinois O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Spread -26.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| Illinois 1H O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Illinois 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Illinois 2H O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Illinois 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Illinois 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Illinois O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Illinois vs. Ohio State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Illinois vs. Ohio State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Illinois vs. Ohio State: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Illinois 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Illinois 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Illinois vs. Ohio State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Illinois vs. Ohio State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Illinois vs. Ohio State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 48% |
| Spread -27.5 | 47% |
| O/U 55.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 46% |
| O/U 57.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 42% |
| Spread -28.5 | 41% |
| 2H O/U 23.5 | 41% |
| Spread -29.5 | 40% |
| Spread -30.5 | 40% |
| O/U 59.5 | 38% |
| Spread -31.5 | 35% |
| Spread -32.5 | 34% |
| O/U 61.5 | 33% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| Spread -33.5 | 32% |
| 1H O/U 34.5 | 32% |
| Spread -34.5 | 30% |
| Ohio State O/U 45.5 | 30% |
| Illinois O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| Spread -36.5 | 25% |
| O/U 63.5 | 25% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 25% |
| Spread -35.5 | 24% |
| Illinois O/U 16.5 | 23% |
| O/U 65.5 | 21% |
| O/U 67.5 | 20% |
| Spread -38.5 | 19% |
| Spread -41.5 | 14% |
| Spread -42.5 | 12% |
| Spread -44.5 | 12% |
| O/U 69.5 | 12% |
| O/U 71.5 | 11% |
| O/U 73.5 | 10% |
| 1H Moneyline | 10% |
| Spread -45.5 | 8% |
| Spread -48.5 | 7% |
| Illinois vs. Ohio State | 4% |
Market context
Illinois vs. Ohio State. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 4% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-26T16:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $154K.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Illinois vs. Ohio State. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Which entertainment markets are available?
- Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
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