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Hawaii vs. Stanford

"Hawaii vs. Stanford" — live odds for awards shows and entertainment markets, plus platform comparison.

1Q Spread -0.5 90% 1Q Spread -1.5 90% 1Q Spread -2.5 90% O/U 31.5 84% Volume: $193K Liquidity: $790K Closes: 29 Aug 2026
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Hawaii vs. Stanford

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 90% 10% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 90% 10% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
1Q Spread -0.590%
1Q Spread -1.590%
1Q Spread -2.590%
O/U 31.584%
1H Spread -2.582%
Spread -1.571%
Spread -2.569%
1H Spread -3.565%
O/U 37.563%
Spread -3.562%
1H Spread -4.560%
Spread -4.558%
Spread: Stanford (-5.5)57%
O/U 49.554%
Spread -6.553%
O/U 47.551%
Spread -0.550%
Spread -8.550%
Spread -21.550%
Spread -24.550%
Spread -27.550%
Spread -31.550%
Spread -34.550%
O/U 29.550%
O/U 33.550%
O/U 35.550%
O/U 39.550%
O/U 41.550%
O/U 45.550%
O/U 57.550%
O/U 59.550%
O/U 63.550%
O/U 65.550%
O/U 69.550%
1H Spread -0.550%
1H Spread -1.550%
2Q Spread -0.550%
2Q Spread -1.550%
2Q Spread -2.550%
2Q Moneyline50%
3Q Spread -0.550%
3Q Spread -1.550%
3Q Moneyline50%
4Q Spread -0.550%
4Q Spread -1.550%
Stanford O/U 20.550%
Stanford O/U 23.550%
Stanford O/U 26.550%
Stanford O/U 29.550%
Stanford O/U 32.550%
Hawaii O/U 15.550%
Hawaii O/U 18.550%
Hawaii O/U 21.550%
Hawaii O/U 24.550%
Hawaii O/U 27.550%
2H Spread -0.550%
2H Spread -1.550%
2H Spread -2.550%
Stanford 1H O/U 11.550%
Stanford 1H O/U 13.550%
Stanford 1H O/U 15.550%
Hawaii 1H O/U 8.550%
Hawaii 1H O/U 10.550%
Hawaii 1H O/U 12.550%
Stanford 2H O/U 11.550%
Stanford 2H O/U 13.550%
Stanford 2H O/U 15.550%
Hawaii 2H O/U 8.550%
Hawaii 2H O/U 10.550%
Hawaii 2H O/U 12.550%
Hawaii 1H O/U 7.550%
Hawaii 1H O/U 9.550%
Hawaii 1H O/U 11.550%
Hawaii O/U 16.550%
Hawaii O/U 19.550%
Hawaii O/U 22.550%
Hawaii O/U 25.550%
Hawaii O/U 28.550%
Stanford 2H O/U 10.550%
Stanford 2H O/U 12.550%
Stanford 2H O/U 14.550%
1H Spread -5.550%
Spread -7.549%
2H Spread -3.549%
O/U 51.548%
O/U 61.548%
1H Moneyline47%
O/U 43.547%
O/U 53.547%
2Q Spread -3.547%
3Q Spread -2.545%
4Q Spread -2.543%
4Q Moneyline43%
2H Moneyline43%
O/U 55.533%
Spread -13.532%
O/U 48.531%
Spread -10.530%
Spread -14.529%
Hawaii vs. Stanford26%
Spread -16.526%
Spread -17.520%
O/U 67.516%
Spread -20.514%
1Q Moneyline10%

Market context

Market consensus: 90% chance of hawaii vs. stanford. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for August 29 at 7:00PM ET: If Hawaii wins, the market will resolve to "Hawaii". If Stanford wins, the market will resolve to "Stan…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1Q Spread -0.5 at 90% for "Hawaii vs. Stanford".

1Q Spread -0.5 90% Other 10%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $193K.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Hawaii vs. Stanford. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?
Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
When do award markets resolve?
After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
How accurate are award predictions?
Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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