Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Is entertainment trading worth the effort?

Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.

Duke vs. Illinois — Real-Money Award Odds | Oscarpredictions2026

Name: Duke vs. Illinois
Start: 2026-08-31T22:00:58.000Z
End: 2026-09-12T19:30:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	91%	9%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	91%	9%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Trade this market →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Trade this market →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
1Q O/U 3.5	91%
1Q O/U 6.5	91%
1Q O/U 9.5	91%
1Q O/U 12.5	91%
O/U 40.5	82%
O/U 36.5	80%
O/U 33.5	80%
O/U 32.5	79%
O/U 34.5	78%
O/U 38.5	78%
O/U 35.5	78%
O/U 42.5	76%
O/U 44.5	76%
O/U 48.5	73%
O/U 46.5	72%
O/U 50.5	70%
O/U 52.5	64%
O/U 51.5	63%
O/U 56.5	62%
O/U 54.5	61%
O/U 53.5	60%
Spread -2.5	59%
1H Spread -2.5	57%
Spread -1.5	56%
O/U 58.5	56%
Spread -3.5	55%
O/U 60.5	55%
Spread -6.5	54%
Spread -5.5	54%
Spread -4.5	52%
1H Spread -7.5	51%
1H O/U 19.5	51%
Duke O/U 0.5	50%
Duke O/U 1.5	50%
Duke O/U 2.5	50%
Duke O/U 3.5	50%
Illinois O/U 0.5	50%
Illinois O/U 1.5	50%
Illinois O/U 2.5	50%
Illinois O/U 3.5	50%
Spread -0.5	50%
Spread -31.5	50%
Spread -34.5	50%
2H Moneyline	50%
Nate Sheppard: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Collin Dixon: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Ca'Lil Valentine: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Aidan Laughery: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Jeremiah Hasley: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Katin Houser: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Hudson Clement: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Jared Richardson: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Brayden Trimble: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Ty Robinson: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Kaden Feagin: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Christian Abney: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Jonah Burton: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Jayden Moore: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Walker Eget: Anytime Touchdown	50%
1H Spread -1.5	50%
1H Spread -5.5	50%
1H Moneyline	50%
2H Spread -0.5	50%
2H Spread -1.5	50%
2H Spread -2.5	50%
2H Spread -3.5	50%
2H Spread -4.5	50%
1Q Spread -0.5	50%
1Q Spread -1.5	50%
1Q Spread -2.5	50%
1Q Moneyline	50%
2Q Spread -0.5	50%
2Q Spread -1.5	50%
2Q Spread -2.5	50%
2Q Spread -3.5	50%
2Q Moneyline	50%
3Q Spread -0.5	50%
3Q Spread -1.5	50%
3Q Spread -2.5	50%
3Q Moneyline	50%
4Q Spread -0.5	50%
4Q Spread -1.5	50%
4Q Spread -2.5	50%
4Q Moneyline	50%
Duke O/U 16.5	50%
Duke O/U 19.5	50%
Duke O/U 22.5	50%
Duke O/U 25.5	50%
Duke O/U 28.5	50%
Illinois O/U 23.5	50%
Illinois O/U 26.5	50%
Illinois O/U 29.5	50%
Illinois O/U 32.5	50%
Illinois O/U 35.5	50%
Duke 1H O/U 8.5	50%
Duke 1H O/U 10.5	50%
Duke 1H O/U 12.5	50%
Illinois 1H O/U 12.5	50%
Illinois 1H O/U 14.5	50%
Illinois 1H O/U 16.5	50%
Duke 1H O/U 9.5	50%
Duke 1H O/U 11.5	50%
Duke 1H O/U 13.5	50%
Duke O/U 2.5	50%
Illinois O/U 3.5	50%
Illinois O/U 22.5	50%
Illinois O/U 25.5	50%
Illinois O/U 28.5	50%
Illinois O/U 31.5	50%
Illinois O/U 34.5	50%
Duke O/U 17.5	50%
Duke O/U 20.5	50%
Duke O/U 23.5	50%
Duke O/U 26.5	50%
Duke O/U 29.5	50%
Duke 1H O/U 14.5	50%
CJ Campbell Jr.: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Jordan Anderson: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Javen Nicholas: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Jake Taylor: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Kavon Simmons: Anytime Touchdown	50%
2Q Spread -4.5	50%
Duke 2H O/U 9.5	50%
Duke 2H O/U 11.5	50%
Duke 2H O/U 13.5	50%
Illinois 2H O/U 11.5	50%
Illinois 2H O/U 13.5	50%
Illinois 2H O/U 15.5	50%
Duke 2H O/U 10.5	50%
Duke 2H O/U 12.5	50%
Duke 2H O/U 14.5	50%
Duke 2H O/U 15.5	50%
Illinois 1H O/U 11.5	50%
Illinois 1H O/U 13.5	50%
Illinois 1H O/U 15.5	50%
Illinois 2H O/U 12.5	50%
Illinois 2H O/U 14.5	50%
Illinois 2H O/U 16.5	50%
Spread -0.5	50%
Spread -19.5	50%
Spread -22.5	50%
Spread -26.5	50%
1H Spread -0.5	50%
1H O/U 22.5	50%
1H O/U 25.5	50%
1H O/U 28.5	50%
1H O/U 31.5	50%
2H Spread -1.5	50%
2H Spread -5.5	50%
2H O/U 19.5	50%
2H O/U 22.5	50%
2H O/U 25.5	50%
2H O/U 28.5	50%
2H O/U 31.5	50%
1Q Spread -3.5	50%
1Q Spread -1.5	50%
1Q Spread -0.5	50%
1Q Spread -3.5	50%
1Q O/U 15.5	50%
2Q Spread -3.5	50%
2Q Spread -1.5	50%
2Q Spread -0.5	50%
2Q O/U 8.5	50%
2Q O/U 11.5	50%
2Q O/U 14.5	50%
2Q O/U 17.5	50%
2Q O/U 20.5	50%
3Q Spread -3.5	50%
3Q Spread -1.5	50%
3Q Spread -0.5	50%
3Q Spread -3.5	50%
3Q O/U 4.5	50%
3Q O/U 7.5	50%
3Q O/U 10.5	50%
3Q O/U 13.5	50%
3Q O/U 16.5	50%
4Q Spread -3.5	50%
4Q Spread -1.5	50%
4Q Spread -0.5	50%
4Q Spread -3.5	50%
4Q O/U 8.5	50%
4Q O/U 11.5	50%
4Q O/U 14.5	50%
4Q O/U 17.5	50%
4Q O/U 20.5	50%
Duke 2H O/U 8.5	50%
Spread -27.5	49%
Spread -8.5	49%
1H Spread -3.5	48%
1H Spread -4.5	48%
Spread -9.5	47%
Spread -8.5	46%
Spread -21.5	46%
Spread -10.5	43%
Spread -7.5	42%
Spread -13.5	41%
Spread -20.5	41%
O/U 62.5	41%
O/U 66.5	41%
Spread -11.5	39%
Spread -12.5	39%
Spread -7.5	38%
O/U 64.5	38%
Spread -16.5	36%
Spread -1.5	36%
Spread -14.5	35%
O/U 68.5	34%
O/U 72.5	33%
O/U 70.5	32%
Spread -17.5	31%
O/U 74.5	30%
Spread -23.5	30%
Duke vs. Illinois	28%
Spread -24.5	28%
Spread -2.5	26%
Spread -4.5	24%
Spread -14.5	21%
Spread -11.5	18%
Spread -10.5	16%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 91% probability to duke vs. illinois. In the upcoming college football game between Duke and Illinois, scheduled for September 12 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Duke" if Duke win the game. This market will resolve to "Illinois…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1Q O/U 3.5 at 91% for "Duke vs. Illinois".

1Q O/U 3.5 91% Other 9%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $106K.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Duke vs. Illinois. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?: Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
How accurate are award predictions?: Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
What was the top Oscar 2025 market?: Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
How are reality-TV outcomes verified?: UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
Is entertainment trading worth the effort?: Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.

Alex ChenPrediction Market Analystand

Jordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

Trade Duke vs. Illinois on Oscar Predictions 2026

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Duke vs. Illinois

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Live Data & Statistics

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Duke vs. Illinois on Oscar Predictions 2026

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