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The Citadel vs. Charlotte

Snapshot for "The Citadel vs. Charlotte": award probabilities, show odds, every CTA to Oscar Predictions 2026.

The Citadel vs. Charlotte 100% O/U 46.5 100% O/U 26.5 100% O/U 28.5 100% Volume: $60K Closes: 5 Sept 2026
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The Citadel vs. Charlotte

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
The Citadel vs. Charlotte100%
O/U 46.5100%
O/U 26.5100%
O/U 28.5100%
O/U 30.5100%
O/U 32.5100%
O/U 34.5100%
O/U 36.5100%
O/U 38.5100%
O/U 40.5100%
O/U 42.5100%
O/U 44.5100%
O/U 48.5100%
O/U 50.5100%
O/U 52.5100%
O/U 54.5100%
O/U 56.5100%
O/U 58.5100%
O/U 60.5100%
O/U 62.5100%
O/U 64.5100%
O/U 66.5100%
2H Moneyline100%
Charlotte O/U 27.5100%
Charlotte O/U 30.5100%
Charlotte O/U 33.5100%
Charlotte O/U 36.5100%
Charlotte O/U 39.5100%
The Citadel O/U 7.5100%
The Citadel O/U 10.5100%
The Citadel O/U 13.5100%
The Citadel O/U 16.5100%
The Citadel O/U 19.5100%
The Citadel 1H O/U 4.5100%
The Citadel 1H O/U 6.5100%
2Q Spread -4.5100%
2Q Spread -5.5100%
2Q Spread -6.5100%
3Q Moneyline100%
O/U 47.5100%
O/U 27.5100%
O/U 29.5100%
O/U 31.5100%
Charlotte O/U 28.5100%
Charlotte O/U 31.5100%
Charlotte O/U 34.5100%
Charlotte O/U 37.5100%
Charlotte O/U 40.5100%
1Q Moneyline50%
4Q Moneyline50%
Spread: Charlotte (-15.5)0%
Spread -17.50%
Spread -19.50%
Spread -20.50%
Spread -0.50%
Spread -1.50%
Spread -2.50%
Spread -3.50%
Spread -4.50%
Spread -5.50%
Spread -6.50%
Spread -7.50%
Spread -8.50%
Spread -10.50%
Spread -13.50%
Spread -14.50%
Spread -16.50%
Spread -21.50%
Spread -24.50%
Spread -27.50%
Spread -31.50%
Spread -34.50%
1H Spread -9.50%
1H Spread -10.50%
1H Spread -11.50%
1H Spread -12.50%
1H Spread -13.50%
1H Moneyline0%
1Q Spread -4.50%
1Q Spread -5.50%
1Q Spread -6.50%
1Q Spread -7.50%
1Q Spread -8.50%
The Citadel 1H O/U 8.50%
Charlotte 1H O/U 15.50%
Charlotte 1H O/U 17.50%
Charlotte 1H O/U 19.50%
2Q Spread -7.50%
2Q Spread -8.50%
2Q Moneyline0%
3Q Spread -2.50%
3Q Spread -3.50%
3Q Spread -4.50%
3Q Spread -5.50%
3Q Spread -6.50%
4Q Spread -1.50%
4Q Spread -2.50%
4Q Spread -3.50%
4Q Spread -4.50%
4Q Spread -5.50%
1H Spread -14.50%
2H Spread -5.50%
2H Spread -6.50%
2H Spread -7.50%
2H Spread -8.50%
2H Spread -9.50%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for The Citadel vs. Charlotte. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 5 at 3:30PM ET: If The Citadel wins, the market will resolve to "The Citadel". If Charlotte wins, the market will resolve to "Charlotte".…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices The Citadel vs. Charlotte at 100% for "The Citadel vs. Charlotte".

The Citadel vs. Charlotte 100% Other 0%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $60K.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for The Citadel vs. Charlotte. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do award markets resolve?
After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
How accurate are award predictions?
Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

Trade The Citadel vs. Charlotte on Oscar Predictions 2026

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