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Cal Poly vs. San Jose State

How the prediction markets are pricing "Cal Poly vs. San Jose State" — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

O/U 37.5 100% O/U 39.5 100% O/U 41.5 100% O/U 43.5 100% Volume: $72K Liquidity: $135K Closes: 13 Sept 2026
Open live market →
Cal Poly vs. San Jose State

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
O/U 37.5100%
O/U 39.5100%
O/U 41.5100%
O/U 43.5100%
O/U 45.5100%
O/U 47.5100%
O/U 49.5100%
2Q Spread -4.5100%
2Q Spread -5.5100%
2Q Spread -6.5100%
Cal Poly O/U 11.5100%
Cal Poly O/U 14.5100%
Cal Poly O/U 17.5100%
Cal Poly O/U 20.5100%
2H O/U 22.5100%
2H O/U 25.5100%
2H O/U 28.5100%
2Q Spread -2.5100%
2Q O/U 10.5100%
2Q O/U 13.5100%
2Q O/U 16.5100%
3Q O/U 7.5100%
3Q O/U 10.5100%
3Q O/U 13.5100%
4Q O/U 7.5100%
4Q O/U 10.5100%
4Q O/U 13.5100%
Cal Poly 2H O/U 7.5100%
Cal Poly O/U 13.5100%
Cal Poly O/U 16.5100%
Cal Poly O/U 19.5100%
Spread -1.598%
Spread -2.598%
Spread -3.597%
Spread -4.597%
Spread -9.596%
Spread -6.595%
Spread -7.594%
Spread -5.593%
4Q O/U 16.591%
Spread -0.550%
Spread -8.550%
Spread -31.550%
Spread -34.550%
O/U 51.550%
O/U 53.550%
O/U 63.550%
O/U 65.550%
O/U 69.550%
O/U 75.550%
O/U 77.550%
2H Moneyline50%
1Q Moneyline50%
3Q Moneyline50%
4Q Spread -1.550%
4Q Spread -2.550%
4Q Spread -3.550%
4Q Spread -4.550%
4Q Spread -5.550%
4Q Moneyline50%
San Jose State O/U 32.550%
San Jose State O/U 35.550%
San Jose State O/U 38.550%
San Jose State O/U 41.550%
San Jose State O/U 44.550%
Cal Poly O/U 23.550%
Spread -0.550%
Spread -12.550%
Spread -15.550%
Spread -18.550%
Spread -19.550%
Spread -22.550%
Spread -25.550%
Spread -26.550%
Spread -28.550%
Spread -36.550%
Spread -37.550%
Spread -40.550%
2H Spread -6.550%
2H Spread -8.550%
2H Spread -9.550%
2H Spread -10.550%
2H Spread -11.550%
2H Spread -13.550%
2H O/U 31.550%
2H O/U 34.550%
4Q Spread -0.550%
4Q Spread -7.550%
4Q O/U 19.550%
Cal Poly 2H O/U 9.550%
Cal Poly 2H O/U 11.550%
San Jose State 2H O/U 17.550%
San Jose State 2H O/U 19.550%
San Jose State 2H O/U 21.550%
Cal Poly O/U 22.550%
Cal Poly O/U 25.550%
San Jose State O/U 33.550%
San Jose State O/U 36.550%
San Jose State O/U 39.550%
San Jose State O/U 42.550%
San Jose State O/U 45.550%
O/U 71.527%
Spread -14.510%
Spread -13.59%
O/U 56.58%
Spread -16.57%
O/U 55.57%
O/U 67.57%
Spread -11.57%
Spread -10.56%
O/U 57.55%
Spread -17.54%
Spread -27.54%
O/U 59.54%
O/U 61.54%
Spread -23.54%
Spread -30.54%
Spread -33.54%
O/U 58.54%
Spread -20.53%
Spread -24.53%
Spread -21.52%
O/U 73.52%
Cal Poly vs. San Jose State0%
1H Spread -9.50%
1H Spread -10.50%
1H Spread -11.50%
1H Spread -12.50%
1H Spread -13.50%
1H Moneyline0%
1Q Spread -4.50%
1Q Spread -5.50%
1Q Spread -6.50%
1Q Spread -7.50%
1Q Spread -8.50%
2Q Spread -7.50%
2Q Spread -8.50%
2Q Moneyline0%
3Q Spread -3.50%
3Q Spread -4.50%
3Q Spread -5.50%
3Q Spread -6.50%
3Q Spread -7.50%
1H Spread -14.50%
1H Spread -8.50%
1H Spread -15.50%
1H O/U 24.50%
1H O/U 27.50%
1H O/U 30.50%
1H O/U 33.50%
1H O/U 36.50%
1Q Spread -2.50%
1Q Spread -9.50%
1Q O/U 7.50%
1Q O/U 10.50%
1Q O/U 13.50%
1Q O/U 16.50%
1Q O/U 19.50%
2Q Spread -9.50%
2Q O/U 19.50%
2Q O/U 22.50%
3Q Spread -2.50%
3Q Spread -9.50%
3Q O/U 16.50%
3Q O/U 19.50%
Cal Poly 1H O/U 7.50%
Cal Poly 1H O/U 9.50%
Cal Poly 1H O/U 11.50%
San Jose State 1H O/U 17.50%
San Jose State 1H O/U 19.50%
San Jose State 1H O/U 21.50%
San Jose State 1H O/U 18.50%
San Jose State 1H O/U 20.50%
San Jose State 1H O/U 22.50%
San Jose State 1H O/U 23.50%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Cal Poly vs. San Jose State. In the upcoming college football game between Cal Poly and San Jose State, scheduled for September 12 at 9:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cal Poly" if Cal Poly win the game. This market will re…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices O/U 37.5 at 100% for "Cal Poly vs. San Jose State".

O/U 37.5 100% Other 0%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $72K.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Cal Poly vs. San Jose State. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?
Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
How accurate are award predictions?
Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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