Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
78% | 22% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
78% | 22% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 34.5 | 78% |
| O/U 36.5 | 77% |
| O/U 40.5 | 72% |
| O/U 46.5 | 70% |
| Spread -1.5 | 64% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 61% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 58% |
| O/U 54.5 | 52% |
| Spread -9.5 | 52% |
| Spread -18.5 | 52% |
| O/U 55.5 | 51% |
| Spread -16.5 | 51% |
| Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| California O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| Spread -24.5 | 50% |
| Spread -27.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| O/U 72.5 | 50% |
| O/U 74.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Syracuse O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| California 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| California 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| California 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Adam Mohammed: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tylik Hill: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Umari Hatcher: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Shavane Anderson Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Ian Strong: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chase Hendricks: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Cole Weaver: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Matt Outten: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Mason Mini: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| David Clement: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Steve Angeli: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Ashten Emory: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Noah Meyers: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Cooper Perry: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jordan King: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Dorian Thomas: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Syracuse O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Carter Vargas: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Darien Williams: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Julian McFadden: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Zamondre Merriweather: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kyion Grayes: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Mark Hamper: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| California 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| California 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| California 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Spread -6.5 | 49% |
| Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| Spread -5.5 | 48% |
| O/U 53.5 | 47% |
| O/U 52.5 | 47% |
| Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| Spread -4.5 | 46% |
| Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| Spread -13.5 | 38% |
| Spread -14.5 | 37% |
| Spread -9.5 | 37% |
| O/U 56.5 | 35% |
| O/U 62.5 | 35% |
| Spread -12.5 | 35% |
| California vs. Syracuse | 34% |
| Spread -11.5 | 32% |
| O/U 58.5 | 30% |
| O/U 68.5 | 30% |
| Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| O/U 64.5 | 28% |
| Spread -16.5 | 22% |
| Spread -13.5 | 20% |
| Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| O/U 70.5 | 18% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, california vs. syracuse stands at 78% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming college football game between California and Syracuse, scheduled for September 12 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "California" if California win the game.…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $240K.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for California vs. Syracuse. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Which entertainment markets are available?
- Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
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