When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.

Arkansas vs. Utah — Award Odds Live | Oscarpredictions2026

Name: Arkansas vs. Utah
Start: 2026-08-31T22:02:17.000Z
End: 2026-09-13T02:15:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	96%	4%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	96%	4%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Trade this market →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Trade this market →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
1Q O/U 7.5	96%
O/U 36.5	92%
Spread -1.5	86%
Spread -2.5	84%
Spread -3.5	81%
O/U 42.5	81%
Spread -5.5	80%
Utah O/U 27.5	80%
Spread -4.5	78%
O/U 38.5	77%
1Q Spread -3.5	77%
Spread -6.5	76%
O/U 40.5	76%
1Q Spread -2.5	76%
2Q O/U 10.5	76%
Spread -7.5	73%
O/U 44.5	72%
Spread: Utah (-9.5)	71%
O/U 46.5	71%
Utah O/U 30.5	70%
O/U 48.5	69%
Spread -10.5	66%
Utah O/U 37.5	66%
1H Spread -6.5	65%
Spread -11.5	64%
O/U 50.5	64%
Utah O/U 34.5	64%
4Q O/U 7.5	64%
Spread -8.5	62%
1H O/U 30.5	62%
2Q O/U 13.5	61%
Spread -13.5	59%
1H Spread -4.5	59%
1H Spread -7.5	59%
2Q Spread -2.5	59%
4Q O/U 10.5	57%
O/U 52.5	56%
1H O/U 27.5	56%
4Q O/U 13.5	56%
Spread -14.5	53%
2Q Spread -3.5	53%
3Q Spread -2.5	53%
Spread -12.5	52%
Spread -16.5	52%
O/U 54.5	50%
Spread -0.5	50%
Spread -31.5	50%
Spread -34.5	50%
2H Moneyline	50%
Wayshawn Parker: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Devon Dampier: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Braden Pegan: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Braylen Russell: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Sutton Smith: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Chris Marshall: Anytime Touchdown	50%
KJ Jackson: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Ricky Johnson: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Jaden Platt: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Daniel Bray: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Larry Simmons: Anytime Touchdown	50%
CJ Brown: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Donovan Faupel: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Jamari Hawkins: Anytime Touchdown	50%
1H Spread -5.5	50%
1H Spread -8.5	50%
1H Moneyline	50%
2H Spread -4.5	50%
2H Spread -5.5	50%
2H Spread -6.5	50%
2H Spread -7.5	50%
2H Spread -8.5	50%
1Q Spread -0.5	50%
1Q Spread -1.5	50%
1Q Spread -4.5	50%
1Q Moneyline	50%
2Q Spread -1.5	50%
2Q Spread -4.5	50%
2Q Spread -5.5	50%
2Q Moneyline	50%
3Q Spread -1.5	50%
3Q Spread -4.5	50%
3Q Spread -5.5	50%
3Q Moneyline	50%
4Q Spread -0.5	50%
4Q Spread -1.5	50%
4Q Spread -2.5	50%
4Q Spread -4.5	50%
4Q Moneyline	50%
Utah O/U 33.5	50%
Utah O/U 36.5	50%
Utah O/U 39.5	50%
Arkansas O/U 15.5	50%
Arkansas O/U 18.5	50%
Arkansas O/U 24.5	50%
Utah 1H O/U 15.5	50%
Utah 1H O/U 17.5	50%
Utah 1H O/U 19.5	50%
Arkansas 1H O/U 8.5	50%
Arkansas 1H O/U 10.5	50%
Arkansas 1H O/U 12.5	50%
1H Spread -9.5	50%
4Q Spread -5.5	50%
Arkansas O/U 14.5	50%
Arkansas O/U 17.5	50%
Arkansas O/U 26.5	50%
Utah O/U 28.5	50%
Utah O/U 31.5	50%
Utah O/U 40.5	50%
Utah 1H O/U 14.5	50%
Utah 1H O/U 16.5	50%
Utah 1H O/U 18.5	50%
Arkansas 1H O/U 7.5	50%
Arkansas 1H O/U 9.5	50%
Arkansas 1H O/U 11.5	50%
3Q Spread -0.5	50%
Byrd Ficklin: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Steve Chavez-Soto: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Hunter Andrews: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Noah Bennee: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Creed Whittemore: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Cam Settles: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Ismael Cisse: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Kyri Shoels: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Jelani Watkins: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Utah 2H O/U 14.5	50%
Utah 2H O/U 16.5	50%
Utah 2H O/U 18.5	50%
Arkansas 2H O/U 7.5	50%
Arkansas 2H O/U 9.5	50%
Arkansas 2H O/U 11.5	50%
2H Spread -3.5	50%
Spread -8.5	50%
Spread -28.5	50%
Spread -29.5	50%
Spread -32.5	50%
1H Spread -11.5	50%
1H O/U 21.5	50%
1H O/U 24.5	50%
1H O/U 33.5	50%
2H Spread -2.5	50%
2H Spread -9.5	50%
2H O/U 20.5	50%
2H O/U 23.5	50%
2H O/U 26.5	50%
2H O/U 29.5	50%
2H O/U 32.5	50%
1Q Spread -1.5	50%
1Q Spread -5.5	50%
1Q O/U 13.5	50%
1Q O/U 16.5	50%
2Q Spread -0.5	50%
2Q O/U 16.5	50%
2Q O/U 22.5	50%
3Q O/U 6.5	50%
3Q O/U 9.5	50%
3Q O/U 15.5	50%
3Q O/U 18.5	50%
O/U 55.5	49%
3Q Spread -3.5	49%
Spread -15.5	49%
O/U 57.5	48%
Spread -17.5	48%
Arkansas O/U 2.5	48%
Utah O/U 4.5	46%
O/U 56.5	45%
4Q Spread -3.5	45%
Spread -18.5	45%
Spread -19.5	44%
2Q O/U 19.5	42%
Spread -20.5	40%
O/U 62.5	40%
Arkansas O/U 23.5	40%
4Q O/U 16.5	40%
O/U 58.5	39%
Arkansas O/U 20.5	39%
Spread -22.5	39%
Arkansas O/U 21.5	38%
O/U 64.5	37%
Spread -21.5	36%
O/U 60.5	36%
3Q O/U 12.5	36%
2Q Spread -7.5	35%
4Q O/U 19.5	35%
Spread -25.5	33%
3Q Spread -7.5	33%
O/U 68.5	32%
Spread -26.5	32%
1Q O/U 10.5	32%
Spread -24.5	30%
O/U 70.5	30%
O/U 74.5	30%
4Q Spread -7.5	30%
O/U 76.5	28%
Arkansas O/U 27.5	28%
O/U 66.5	24%
1Q O/U 19.5	21%
Spread -27.5	20%
O/U 72.5	14%
Arkansas vs. Utah	13%
Spread -1.5	12%
Spread -2.5	11%
Spread -4.5	9%
Spread -5.5	8%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, arkansas vs. utah stands at 96% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming college football game between Arkansas and Utah, scheduled for September 12 at 10:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Arkansas" if Arkansas win the game. This mar…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1Q O/U 7.5 at 96% for "Arkansas vs. Utah".

1Q O/U 7.5 96% Other 4%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $133K.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Arkansas vs. Utah. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do award markets resolve?: After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
How accurate are award predictions?: Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
Who can trade Eurovision markets?: Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
How are reality-TV outcomes verified?: UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?: Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.

Alex ChenPrediction Market Analystand

Jordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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Arkansas vs. Utah

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Live Data & Statistics

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Arkansas vs. Utah on Oscar Predictions 2026

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