Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
52% | 48% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
52% | 48% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots | 52% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals + assists | 52% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Tim Weah: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Gio Reyna: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Edin Džeko: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Chris Brady: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Chris Brady: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Chris Brady: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Gio Reyna: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Tim Weah: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots | 47% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Chris Brady: 2+ saves | 46% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots | 42% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots | 41% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals | 38% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals | 35% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ goals | 32% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ assists | 31% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ assists | 27% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ assists | 27% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ assists | 27% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals | 23% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals | 18% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals | 1% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 52% probability to united states vs. bosnia and herzegovina - player props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between United States and Bosnia and Herzegovina, scheduled for July 1 at 8:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Which entertainment markets are available?
- Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
- Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
- Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
- Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
- Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
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