Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots | 93% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ shots | 90% |
| Rafael Leão: 1+ shots | 83% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ shots | 70% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ shots | 67% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ shots | 66% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ shots | 65% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ shots | 62% |
| Rafael Leão: 2+ shots | 62% |
| Ivor Pandur: 2+ saves | 62% |
| José Sá: 2+ saves | 62% |
| João Félix: 1+ shots | 60% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Dominik Livaković: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Dominik Livaković: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ shots | 47% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ante Budimir: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Francisco Conceição: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Francisco Conceição: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Francisco Conceição: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Igor Matanović: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Igor Matanović: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Igor Matanović: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| João Félix: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| João Félix: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Petar Musa: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Petar Musa: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Petar Musa: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Rafael Leão: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Rafael Leão: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Rafael Leão: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Toni Fruk: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Toni Fruk: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Toni Fruk: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Trincão: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Trincão: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Trincão: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ivor Pandur: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Ivor Pandur: 5+ saves | 47% |
| José Sá: 3+ saves | 47% |
| José Sá: 4+ saves | 47% |
| José Sá: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ante Budimir: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ivan Perišić: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ivan Perišić: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| João Félix: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Marco Pašalić: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ shots on target | 45% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals | 44% |
| Igor Matanović: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Francisco Conceição: 1+ shots | 41% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ shots | 41% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 1+ shots | 39% |
| Petar Musa: 1+ shots | 38% |
| Trincão: 1+ shots | 38% |
| João Félix: 1+ shots on target | 36% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots on target | 35% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ shots on target | 33% |
| Francisco Conceição: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Rafael Leão: 3+ shots | 31% |
| Toni Fruk: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Igor Matanović: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Petar Musa: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists | 30% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ shots | 29% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots | 29% |
| Trincão: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ shots on target | 28% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ shots on target | 27% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 2+ shots | 26% |
| João Félix: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Toni Fruk: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ shots | 25% |
| Igor Matanović: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Petar Musa: 3+ shots | 25% |
| João Félix: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Trincão: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Rafael Leão: 1+ goals | 22% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Toni Fruk: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ shots | 19% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Francisco Conceição: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Marco Pašalić: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Petar Musa: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| João Félix: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| João Félix: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 5+ shots | 16% |
| Rafael Leão: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ shots on target | 15% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals | 14% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Igor Matanović: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Ivan Perišić: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Toni Fruk: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Trincão: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Ante Budimir: 4+ shots | 13% |
| João Félix: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Petar Musa: 5+ shots | 12% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Marco Pašalić: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Ivor Pandur: 4+ saves | 11% |
| Diogo Costa: 4+ saves | 11% |
| Dominik Livaković: 4+ saves | 11% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Rafael Leão: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Trincão: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Igor Matanović: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Ivan Perišić: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Toni Fruk: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Petar Musa: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Ante Budimir: 5+ shots | 7% |
| João Félix: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Diogo Costa: 5+ saves | 7% |
| Dominik Livaković: 5+ saves | 7% |
| Francisco Conceição: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Trincão: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists | 6% |
| João Félix: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Toni Fruk: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Marco Pašalić: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 5+ shots | 5% |
| João Félix: 1+ assists | 5% |
| João Félix: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Marco Pašalić: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Igor Matanović: 1+ goals | 4% |
| João Félix: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Rafael Leão: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Francisco Conceição: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ shots | 4% |
| João Félix: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| João Félix: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Francisco Conceição: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Igor Matanović: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Petar Musa: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Toni Fruk: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Trincão: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Trincão: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Francisco Conceição: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Igor Matanović: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Francisco Conceição: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ goals | 1% |
| João Félix: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Petar Musa: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Rafael Leão: 3+ goals | 1% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 94% probability to portugal vs. croatia - player props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Portugal and Croatia, scheduled for July 2 at 7:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Portugal vs. Croatia - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Which entertainment markets are available?
- Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- Who can trade Eurovision markets?
- Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
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