Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ assists | 60% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ shots on target | 51% |
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Guus Til: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Guus Til: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Guus Til: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Noa Lang: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Guus Til: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Guus Til: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Guus Til: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Noa Lang: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mark Flekken: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Mark Flekken: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Mark Flekken: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Mark Flekken: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Munir El Kajoui: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Munir El Kajoui: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Munir El Kajoui: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Munir El Kajoui: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Guus Til: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Guus Til: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brian Brobbey: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Brian Brobbey: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Brian Brobbey: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Cody Gakpo: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Cody Gakpo: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Cody Gakpo: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Donyell Malen: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Donyell Malen: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Donyell Malen: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Guus Til: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Guus Til: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Guus Til: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Ismael Saibari: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Ismael Saibari: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Memphis Depay: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Memphis Depay: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Memphis Depay: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Wout Weghorst: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Wout Weghorst: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Wout Weghorst: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ shots | 16% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Guus Til: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Guus Til: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Brian Brobbey: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Donyell Malen: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Ismael Saibari: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Noa Lang: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Wout Weghorst: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ shots | 1% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ shots | 1% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Guus Til: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Cody Gakpo: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Guus Til: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Guus Til: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Guus Til: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Wout Weghorst: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of netherlands vs. morocco - player props. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Netherlands and Morocco, scheduled for June 29 at 9:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Netherlands vs. Morocco - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Which entertainment markets are available?
- Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- Who can trade Eurovision markets?
- Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
- Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
- Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
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Trade Netherlands vs. Morocco - Player Props on Oscar Predictions 2026
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