Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ goals + assists | 99% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals + assists | 99% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ shots | 77% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ shots | 76% |
| Manuel Neuer: 2+ saves | 76% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ shots | 71% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ shots on target | 71% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals + assists | 55% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ shots on target | 51% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ shots on target | 51% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Gastón Olveira: 4+ saves | 51% |
| Manuel Neuer: 3+ saves | 51% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gastón Olveira: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Gastón Olveira: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Manuel Neuer: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Manuel Neuer: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Gastón Olveira: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Felix Nmecha: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Felix Nmecha: 5+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 5+ shots | 48% |
| Julio César Enciso: 4+ shots | 47% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ shots | 29% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ assists | 28% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ goals | 22% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ goals | 16% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ goals | 14% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to germany vs. paraguay - player props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Germany and Paraguay, scheduled for June 29 at 4:30 PM ET.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Germany vs. Paraguay - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Which entertainment markets are available?
- Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- Who can trade Eurovision markets?
- Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
- Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
- Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
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