Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
81% | 19% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
81% | 19% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ shots | 81% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots | 80% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots | 80% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ shots | 77% |
| Yahia Fofana: 2+ saves | 75% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target | 74% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target | 60% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots | 60% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists | 59% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ shots | 54% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | 52% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Egil Selvik: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Egil Selvik: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Egil Selvik: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target | 44% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ shots | 42% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ shots | 42% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots | 41% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ shots | 41% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots | 38% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ goals + assists | 37% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals + assists | 37% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ goals + assists | 37% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ shots | 35% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target | 24% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target | 21% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals | 18% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Amad Diallo: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots | 12% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Jens Hauge: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Amad Diallo: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Evann Guessand: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Egil Selvik: 5+ saves | 7% |
| Antonio Nusa: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Oumar Diakité: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Oumar Diakité: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Elye Wahi: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Evann Guessand: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Jens Hauge: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jens Hauge: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Oscar Bobb: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Amad Diallo: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Evann Guessand: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Oumar Diakité: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 4+ shots | 1% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
The Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 81% YES. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Côte d'Ivoire and Norway, scheduled for June 30 at 1:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- Who can trade Eurovision markets?
- Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
- Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
- Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
- Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
- Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
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