Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ shots | 100% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 4+ shots | 99% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots | 95% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots | 95% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots | 90% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals + assists | 76% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ shots on target | 75% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots | 70% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots | 65% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots | 62% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots | 60% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 3+ shots | 56% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 5+ shots | 55% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ shots | 55% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ shots | 55% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 5+ shots | 55% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots | 54% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ shots | 53% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots | 53% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ shots | 53% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 2+ saves | 52% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 4+ shots | 52% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Sadio Mané: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Edouard Mendy: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Edouard Mendy: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 1+ goals | 49% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ goals | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Edouard Mendy: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Edouard Mendy: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 5+ shots | 47% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Sadio Mané: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ shots | 45% |
| Jeremy Doku: 5+ shots | 38% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals | 31% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Sadio Mané: 3+ goals | 23% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals | 18% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Bamba Dieng: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Bamba Dieng: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ shots | 3% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals | 2% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ shots | 1% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ shots | 1% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 5+ shots | 1% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ assists | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of belgium vs. senegal - player props. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Belgium and Senegal, scheduled for July 1 at 4:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Belgium vs. Senegal - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Which entertainment markets are available?
- Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
- Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
- Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
- Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
- Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
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