Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Emam Ashour: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ shots on target | 81% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ shots on target | 78% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ goals + assists | 76% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ shots | 60% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ shots | 59% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals + assists | 59% |
| Omar Marmoush: 4+ shots | 56% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots on target | 55% |
| Omar Marmoush: 5+ shots | 54% |
| Emam Ashour: 4+ shots | 52% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ shots | 52% |
| Mohamed Salah: 4+ shots | 52% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Emam Ashour: 5+ shots | 51% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Mo Touré: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maty Ryan: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Maty Ryan: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Maty Ryan: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Maty Ryan: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Mo Touré: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Tete Yengi: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Mo Touré: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Tete Yengi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Mo Touré: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Tete Yengi: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 1+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Tete Yengi: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Tete Yengi: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Trezeguet: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Mo Touré: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Mo Touré: 3+ goals | 7% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ goals | 1% |
Market context
The Australia vs. Egypt - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Australia and Egypt, scheduled for July 3 at 2:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Australia vs. Egypt - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Which entertainment markets are available?
- Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
- Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
- Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2026%20A%2022%2028%200%200%201%2054%2026%22%20fill%3D%22%23f472b6%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%23f472b6%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade Australia vs. Egypt - Player Props on Oscar Predictions 2026
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →