Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
72% | 28% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
72% | 28% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots | 72% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots | 71% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots | 69% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 65% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots | 57% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots on target | 56% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots | 55% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 52% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Nico Elvedi: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Remo Freuler: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Remo Freuler: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Gregor Kobel: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabian Rieder: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Leandro Paredes: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Cristian Romero: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Denis Zakaria: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Manuel Akanji: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Denis Zakaria: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Denis Zakaria: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Gregor Kobel: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Gregor Kobel: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Fabian Rieder: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Granit Xhaka: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Granit Xhaka: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Johan Manzambi: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 45% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target | 44% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 42% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Cédric Itten: 3+ goals | 39% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots | 38% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots on target | 38% |
| Denis Zakaria: 1+ shots | 37% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots | 37% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots | 37% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ shots | 37% |
| Facundo Medina: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 3+ goals | 36% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Manuel Akanji: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots on target | 34% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 34% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots | 31% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Gregor Kobel: 4+ saves | 30% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 28% |
| Facundo Medina: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ goals | 25% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Nico Elvedi: 1+ shots | 23% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots | 19% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 16% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots | 15% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ shots on target | 15% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Denis Zakaria: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Granit Xhaka: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Cédric Itten: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Manuel Akanji: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Nico Elvedi: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Julián Álvarez: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Cédric Itten: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Breel Embolo: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Dan Ndoye: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Ruben Vargas: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Enzo Fernández: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Leandro Paredes: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals | 0% |
Market context
The Argentina vs. Switzerland - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 72% YES. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Argentina and Switzerland, scheduled for July 11 at 9:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Argentina vs. Switzerland - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
- Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
- Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
- Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
- Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
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