Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 94% |
| Wrexham AFC O/U 0.5 | 86% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 78% |
| O/U 1.5 | 76% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 70% |
| Wrexham AFC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 65% |
| Preston North End FC O/U 0.5 | 57% |
| Wrexham AFC O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| Wrexham AFC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 56% |
| O/U 2.5 | 52% |
| Wrexham AFC (-4.5) | 50% |
| Preston North End FC (-4.5) | 50% |
| Wrexham AFC (-5.5) | 50% |
| Preston North End FC (-5.5) | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score | 50% |
| Wrexham AFC O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Preston North End FC O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Preston North End FC O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Wrexham AFC 2nd Half O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Preston North End FC 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Preston North End FC 2nd Half O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Preston North End FC O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Wrexham AFC 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Wrexham AFC 1st Half O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Preston North End FC 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Preston North End FC 1st Half O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| 2nd Half O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| 2nd Half O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| 1st Half O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| Preston North End FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 45% |
| Preston North End FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| Wrexham AFC (-1.5) | 36% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Preston North End FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 31% |
| O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Wrexham AFC O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Wrexham AFC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 24% |
| Preston North End FC O/U 1.5 | 20% |
| Wrexham AFC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 20% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| Wrexham AFC (-2.5) | 17% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 17% |
| Preston North End FC O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| Wrexham AFC O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Wrexham AFC 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 8% |
| Preston North End FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 8% |
| Wrexham AFC (-3.5) | 6% |
| O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| 1st Half O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Preston North End FC (-1.5) | 5% |
| Wrexham AFC O/U 4.5 | 3% |
| O/U 6.5 | 2% |
| Preston North End FC (-2.5) | 1% |
| O/U 7.5 | 1% |
| Preston North End FC (-3.5) | 0% |
| O/U 8.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Wrexham AFC vs. Preston North End FC - More Markets prediction market currently prices this outcome at 94% YES. More markets for the EFL Championship game, scheduled for October 17 at 10:00 AM ET.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Wrexham AFC vs. Preston North End FC - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
- Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
- Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
- Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
- Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
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