Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
89% | 11% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
89% | 11% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 89% |
| Match Winner | 78% |
| Map 2 Winner | 56% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 52% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs 3DMAX (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FaZe (-3.5) vs 3DMAX (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FaZe (-9.5) vs 3DMAX (+9.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FaZe (-3.5) vs 3DMAX (+3.5) | 48% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 47% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FaZe (-3.5) vs 3DMAX (+3.5) | 37% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 21% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FaZe (-6.5) vs 3DMAX (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Counter-Strike: FaZe vs 3DMAX (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage prediction market currently prices this outcome at 89% YES. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 4 match between FaZe and 3DMAX in the XSE Pro League Group Stage, initially scheduled for July 4 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "FaZe" if FaZ…
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: FaZe vs 3DMAX (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Which entertainment markets are available?
- Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- Who can trade Eurovision markets?
- Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
- Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
- Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
Trade Counter-Strike: FaZe vs 3DMAX (BO3) - XSE Pro League… on Oscar Predictions 2026
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →