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Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs 1WIN (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins

"Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs 1WIN (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins" — live odds for awards shows and entertainment markets, plus platform comparison.

Map 1 Winner 100% Map 2 Winner 100% Match Winner 100% Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs 1WIN (+1.5) 100% Volume: $232K Liquidity: $254K Closes: 9 Aug 2026
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Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs 1WIN (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Winner100%
Map 2 Winner100%
Match Winner100%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs 1WIN (+1.5)100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.590%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs 1WIN (+3.5)90%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.590%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.590%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.590%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-6.5) vs 1WIN (+6.5)90%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.590%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.550%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.550%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs 1WIN (+3.5)26%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs 1WIN (+3.5)10%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-6.5) vs 1WIN (+6.5)10%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-3.5) vs 100 Thieves (+3.5)10%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-9.5) vs 1WIN (+9.5)10%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-3.5) vs 100 Thieves (+3.5)10%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-9.5) vs 1WIN (+9.5)10%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.510%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.51%
O/U 2.5 Games0%

Market context

Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs 1WIN (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins — current market-implied probability: 100%. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 4 match between 100 Thieves and 1WIN in the Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins, initially scheduled for August 9 at 12:00PM ET. This marke…

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs 1WIN (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?
Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
How accurate are award predictions?
Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
Who can trade Eurovision markets?
Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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