When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.

Wisconsin vs. Penn State | Oscarpredictions2026

Name: Wisconsin vs. Penn State
Start: 2026-09-21T19:54:48.000Z
End: 2026-09-26T21:00:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	100%	0%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	100%	0%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Trade this market →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Trade this market →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
1H Spread -4.5	100%
1H Spread -7.5	100%
1Q Spread -0.5	100%
1Q Spread -1.5	100%
1Q Spread -2.5	100%
2Q O/U 7.5	100%
2Q O/U 10.5	100%
2Q O/U 13.5	100%
Penn State 1H O/U 12.5	100%
Penn State 1H O/U 14.5	100%
Penn State 1H O/U 16.5	100%
O/U 28.5	95%
1H Spread -2.5	91%
1H Spread -5.5	91%
1H Spread -6.5	91%
1H Spread -9.5	91%
1H O/U 17.5	91%
1H O/U 20.5	91%
1H O/U 23.5	91%
2Q Spread -0.5	91%
2Q Spread -3.5	91%
2Q Spread -4.5	91%
2Q Spread -5.5	91%
2Q O/U 16.5	91%
2Q O/U 19.5	91%
Wisconsin 1H O/U 6.5	91%
2Q Spread -1.5	91%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q2	91%
Spread -1.5	90%
Spread -2.5	90%
2Q Spread -2.5	90%
O/U 34.5	87%
Spread -3.5	83%
Spread -4.5	83%
Spread -5.5	79%
4Q O/U 7.5	77%
Spread -6.5	76%
O/U 30.5	76%
O/U 32.5	76%
O/U 36.5	74%
O/U 38.5	72%
Spread -7.5	71%
Spread -9.5	68%
O/U 40.5	66%
Spread -8.5	64%
Wisconsin O/U 17.5	64%
O/U 42.5	60%
Spread -10.5	57%
Penn State O/U 27.5	57%
Spread -11.5	55%
Spread -12.5	54%
O/U 44.5	52%
4Q Spread -2.5	52%
Spread -0.5	50%
Spread -26.5	50%
O/U 24.5	50%
O/U 26.5	50%
2H Spread -2.5	50%
2H Spread -4.5	50%
2H Spread -5.5	50%
2H Spread -6.5	50%
2H Spread -7.5	50%
2H Spread -9.5	50%
2H O/U 16.5	50%
2H O/U 19.5	50%
2H O/U 22.5	50%
2H O/U 25.5	50%
2H O/U 28.5	50%
3Q Spread -1.5	50%
3Q Spread -0.5	50%
3Q Spread -5.5	50%
3Q O/U 3.5	50%
3Q O/U 6.5	50%
3Q O/U 9.5	50%
3Q O/U 15.5	50%
4Q Spread -1.5	50%
4Q Spread -0.5	50%
4Q Spread -1.5	50%
4Q Spread -5.5	50%
4Q O/U 4.5	50%
4Q O/U 16.5	50%
Wisconsin O/U 11.5	50%
Wisconsin O/U 14.5	50%
Penn State O/U 21.5	50%
Penn State O/U 24.5	50%
Penn State O/U 33.5	50%
Wisconsin 2H O/U 6.5	50%
Wisconsin 2H O/U 8.5	50%
Wisconsin 2H O/U 10.5	50%
Penn State 2H O/U 11.5	50%
Penn State 2H O/U 13.5	50%
Penn State 2H O/U 15.5	50%
2H Spread -0.5	50%
2H Spread -3.5	50%
2H Moneyline	50%
Penn State O/U 3.5	50%
Wisconsin O/U 1.5	50%
3Q Moneyline	50%
4Q Moneyline	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3	50%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q4	50%
Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown	50%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q3	50%
Game Goes to Overtime	50%
Wisconsin vs. Penn State: Total Touchdowns O/U 4.5	50%
Pick-Six Scored	50%
Wisconsin vs. Penn State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5	50%
Wisconsin vs. Penn State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5	50%
Wisconsin Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5	50%
Wisconsin Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5	50%
Penn State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5	50%
Penn State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5	50%
Penn State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5	50%
Wisconsin Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5	50%
Wisconsin Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5	50%
Penn State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5	50%
Wisconsin Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5	50%
Wisconsin Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5	50%
Wisconsin Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5	50%
Penn State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5	50%
Penn State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5	50%
Wisconsin Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5	50%
Wisconsin Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5	50%
Wisconsin Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5	50%
Penn State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5	50%
Penn State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5	50%
Penn State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5	50%
Wisconsin Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5	50%
Penn State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5	50%
Wisconsin Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5	50%
Penn State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5	50%
Wisconsin 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
Wisconsin 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
Penn State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5	50%
Wisconsin Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
Penn State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
Penn State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
Wisconsin Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
Wisconsin Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5	50%
Penn State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
Penn State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5	50%
Wisconsin Total Receptions: O/U 14.5	50%
Penn State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
Wisconsin Total Receptions: O/U 19.5	50%
Wisconsin Total Receptions: O/U 24.5	50%
Penn State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5	50%
Penn State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5	50%
Penn State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5	50%
Penn State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5	50%
Wisconsin Total First Downs: O/U 21.5	50%
Wisconsin Total First Downs: O/U 19.5	50%
Wisconsin Total First Downs: O/U 23.5	50%
Penn State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5	50%
Penn State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5	50%
Wisconsin vs. Penn State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5	50%
Wisconsin vs. Penn State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5	50%
Wisconsin vs. Penn State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5	50%
Spread -13.5	49%
3Q Spread -1.5	48%
4Q O/U 10.5	48%
4Q O/U 13.5	48%
Penn State O/U 30.5	48%
3Q Spread -2.5	47%
O/U 46.5	46%
Spread -14.5	45%
Spread -18.5	44%
Spread -16.5	42%
O/U 50.5	42%
4Q Spread -3.5	42%
3Q Spread -3.5	40%
O/U 48.5	37%
Spread -17.5	35%
O/U 54.5	35%
Spread -15.5	34%
3Q O/U 12.5	34%
O/U 56.5	33%
O/U 60.5	31%
O/U 62.5	28%
Wisconsin O/U 20.5	28%
Spread -20.5	24%
O/U 52.5	23%
Spread -23.5	21%
Wisconsin O/U 23.5	19%
Spread -24.5	15%
O/U 58.5	11%
1H O/U 26.5	10%
1H O/U 29.5	10%
2Q Spread -7.5	10%
Wisconsin 1H O/U 8.5	10%
2Q Spread -1.5	10%
1H Moneyline	10%
2Q Moneyline	10%
Spread -27.5	9%
Wisconsin vs. Penn State	8%
Spread -30.5	8%
O/U 64.5	6%
Wisconsin 1H O/U 10.5	6%
Spread -4.5	5%
Spread -3.5	5%
Spread -10.5	4%
Spread -7.5	3%
Spread -6.5	3%
1Q Spread -1.5	0%
1Q Spread -3.5	0%
1Q Spread -5.5	0%
1Q O/U 3.5	0%
1Q O/U 6.5	0%
1Q O/U 9.5	0%
1Q O/U 12.5	0%
1Q O/U 15.5	0%
1Q Moneyline	0%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q1	0%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to wisconsin vs. penn state. In the upcoming college football game between Wisconsin and Penn State, scheduled for September 26 at 5:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Wisconsin" if Wisconsin win the game. This market will res…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1H Spread -4.5 at 100% for "Wisconsin vs. Penn State".

1H Spread -4.5 100% Other 0%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $377K.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Wisconsin vs. Penn State. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do award markets resolve?: After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
How accurate are award predictions?: Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
What was the top Oscar 2025 market?: Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
Who can trade Eurovision markets?: Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?: Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.

Alex ChenPrediction Market Analystand

Jordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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Wisconsin vs. Penn State

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Live Data & Statistics

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Wisconsin vs. Penn State on Oscar Predictions 2026

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