When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Washington vs. Purdue | Oscarpredictions2026 — market: 84% Yes

Name: Washington vs. Purdue
Start: 2026-10-06T00:12:06.000Z
End: 2026-10-17T00:00:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	84%	16%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	84%	16%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Trade this market →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Trade this market →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
O/U 35.5	84%
O/U 37.5	80%
2Q O/U 7.5	80%
O/U 39.5	77%
O/U 41.5	71%
4Q O/U 7.5	71%
O/U 43.5	69%
2Q O/U 10.5	66%
1H O/U 21.5	62%
Purdue O/U 23.5	62%
O/U 45.5	61%
2H O/U 24.5	61%
Spread -0.5	60%
Washington O/U 20.5	60%
3Q O/U 7.5	59%
4Q O/U 10.5	59%
Spread -1.5	57%
1Q O/U 7.5	57%
2Q O/U 13.5	57%
Spread -2.5	56%
O/U 47.5	56%
Washington 1H O/U 11.5	56%
Washington 1H O/U 13.5	56%
1H Spread -0.5	54%
O/U 49.5	53%
Purdue 1H O/U 14.5	52%
1H Spread -1.5	52%
4Q O/U 13.5	51%
Washington vs. Purdue: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5	51%
Purdue O/U 3.5	51%
Washington O/U 2.5	51%
1H O/U 33.5	50%
2H O/U 21.5	50%
2H O/U 33.5	50%
Washington O/U 23.5	50%
Washington O/U 26.5	50%
Washington O/U 29.5	50%
Washington O/U 32.5	50%
Purdue O/U 29.5	50%
Purdue O/U 32.5	50%
Purdue O/U 35.5	50%
Purdue 1H O/U 12.5	50%
Washington 2H O/U 11.5	50%
Washington 2H O/U 13.5	50%
Washington 2H O/U 15.5	50%
Purdue 2H O/U 12.5	50%
Purdue 2H O/U 16.5	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2	50%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q1	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4	50%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q2	50%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q3	50%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q4	50%
Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown	50%
Pick-Six Scored	50%
Washington vs. Purdue: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5	50%
Washington vs. Purdue: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5	50%
Washington vs. Purdue: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5	50%
Purdue Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5	50%
Washington Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5	50%
Washington Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5	50%
Washington Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5	50%
Purdue Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5	50%
Purdue Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5	50%
Washington Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5	50%
Washington Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5	50%
Washington Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5	50%
Purdue Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5	50%
Washington Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5	50%
Purdue Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5	50%
Purdue Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5	50%
Washington Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5	50%
Washington Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5	50%
Purdue Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5	50%
Purdue Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5	50%
Washington Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5	50%
Washington Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5	50%
Purdue Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5	50%
Purdue Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5	50%
Washington Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5	50%
Purdue Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5	50%
Purdue Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5	50%
Washington 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
Washington 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
Purdue 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
Washington Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
Purdue 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
Washington Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5	50%
Washington Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
Purdue Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
Purdue Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
Purdue Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5	50%
Purdue Total Receptions: O/U 14.5	50%
Washington Total Receptions: O/U 14.5	50%
Washington Total Receptions: O/U 19.5	50%
Purdue Total Receptions: O/U 19.5	50%
Washington Total Receptions: O/U 24.5	50%
Purdue Total Receptions: O/U 24.5	50%
Washington Total First Downs: O/U 19.5	50%
Washington Total First Downs: O/U 23.5	50%
Washington Total First Downs: O/U 21.5	50%
Purdue Total First Downs: O/U 19.5	50%
Purdue Total First Downs: O/U 21.5	50%
Purdue Total First Downs: O/U 23.5	50%
Washington vs. Purdue: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5	50%
Washington vs. Purdue: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5	50%
1H Spread -2.5	50%
1H Spread -5.5	50%
2H Spread -1.5	50%
2H Spread -0.5	50%
2H Spread -5.5	50%
1Q Spread -1.5	50%
1Q Spread -0.5	50%
1Q Spread -1.5	50%
2Q Spread -1.5	50%
2Q Spread -1.5	50%
2Q Spread -5.5	50%
3Q Spread -1.5	50%
3Q Spread -1.5	50%
3Q Spread -5.5	50%
4Q Spread -1.5	50%
4Q Spread -5.5	50%
2H Moneyline	50%
2Q Moneyline	50%
3Q Moneyline	50%
4Q Moneyline	50%
1H O/U 24.5	49%
2Q Spread -0.5	49%
3Q Spread -0.5	49%
4Q Spread -0.5	49%
Purdue 2H O/U 14.5	48%
Game Goes to Overtime	48%
2H Spread -1.5	48%
Spread -3.5	47%
2H Spread -2.5	47%
2Q Spread -2.5	47%
O/U 51.5	46%
1Q Spread -0.5	46%
4Q Spread -2.5	46%
3Q O/U 10.5	45%
Spread -4.5	44%
1Q O/U 10.5	44%
2Q O/U 16.5	43%
1H Spread -3.5	43%
3Q Spread -2.5	43%
4Q Spread -1.5	43%
1H Moneyline	43%
Spread -5.5	42%
Washington vs. Purdue	41%
O/U 53.5	41%
2H Spread -3.5	41%
Spread -0.5	40%
Spread -6.5	40%
1H O/U 27.5	40%
1Q Moneyline	40%
2H O/U 27.5	39%
3Q O/U 13.5	39%
Spread -1.5	38%
1H Spread -1.5	38%
2Q Spread -3.5	38%
Spread -2.5	37%
1Q O/U 13.5	37%
Purdue O/U 26.5	37%
Purdue 1H O/U 16.5	36%
1Q Spread -3.5	36%
O/U 55.5	35%
4Q O/U 16.5	35%
3Q Spread -3.5	35%
4Q Spread -3.5	35%
Spread -7.5	34%
O/U 57.5	33%
1H O/U 30.5	32%
Spread -3.5	31%
Spread -8.5	30%
2H O/U 30.5	30%
2Q O/U 19.5	30%
Washington 1H O/U 15.5	30%
Spread -4.5	28%
Spread -10.5	27%
O/U 59.5	27%
Spread -5.5	26%
1Q Spread -3.5	26%
Spread -6.5	25%
4Q O/U 19.5	25%
Spread -13.5	24%
O/U 61.5	23%
3Q O/U 16.5	23%
Spread -8.5	20%
Spread -7.5	20%
Spread -14.5	20%
O/U 63.5	20%
Spread -16.5	19%
1Q O/U 16.5	19%
Spread -10.5	16%
Spread -17.5	16%
O/U 65.5	16%
1Q O/U 19.5	16%
3Q O/U 19.5	16%
O/U 67.5	15%
Spread -13.5	14%
Spread -20.5	12%
O/U 69.5	12%
Spread -14.5	10%
Spread -16.5	9%
O/U 71.5	9%
O/U 73.5	9%
O/U 75.5	9%
Spread -20.5	8%
Spread -17.5	8%

Market context

Washington vs. Purdue — current market-implied probability: 84%. In the upcoming college football game between Washington and Purdue, scheduled for October 16 at 8:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Washington" if Washington win the game. This market will resolv…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices O/U 35.5 at 84% for "Washington vs. Purdue".

O/U 35.5 84% Other 16%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $180K.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Washington vs. Purdue. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do award markets resolve?: After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
How accurate are award predictions?: Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
What was the top Oscar 2025 market?: Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
Who can trade Eurovision markets?: Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
How are reality-TV outcomes verified?: UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Alex ChenPrediction Market Analystand

Jordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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Washington vs. Purdue

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Live Data & Statistics

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Washington vs. Purdue on Oscar Predictions 2026

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