Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.

Utah vs. Iowa State — Live Odds & Forecast | Oscarpredictions2026

Name: Utah vs. Iowa State
Start: 2026-09-21T19:32:43.000Z
End: 2026-09-26T19:30:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	87%	13%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	87%	13%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Trade this market →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Trade this market →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
O/U 32.5	87%
2Q O/U 7.5	76%
Utah vs. Iowa State	75%
Spread -0.5	75%
O/U 28.5	75%
O/U 34.5	75%
Spread -1.5	73%
O/U 38.5	73%
Spread -2.5	71%
1H Moneyline	69%
Spread -3.5	65%
O/U 42.5	64%
Spread -4.5	62%
O/U 40.5	62%
2Q O/U 10.5	62%
Spread -5.5	60%
1H Spread -2.5	59%
1H O/U 21.5	59%
O/U 44.5	58%
Spread -6.5	57%
2H Spread -4.5	56%
1Q O/U 7.5	56%
4Q O/U 7.5	56%
3Q Spread -2.5	55%
3Q O/U 7.5	55%
4Q O/U 10.5	55%
2H Spread -2.5	54%
O/U 46.5	53%
2Q Spread -2.5	53%
Spread -7.5	52%
2Q O/U 13.5	52%
1Q Spread -2.5	51%
Spread -25.5	50%
Spread -8.5	50%
Spread -12.5	50%
O/U 30.5	50%
O/U 36.5	50%
O/U 60.5	50%
O/U 66.5	50%
1H Spread -4.5	50%
1H O/U 18.5	50%
2H Spread -0.5	50%
2H O/U 18.5	50%
2H O/U 21.5	50%
1Q Spread -5.5	50%
1Q Spread -1.5	50%
1Q Spread -0.5	50%
1Q Spread -1.5	50%
1Q O/U 4.5	50%
2Q Spread -5.5	50%
2Q Spread -1.5	50%
2Q Spread -0.5	50%
2Q Spread -1.5	50%
3Q Spread -5.5	50%
3Q Spread -1.5	50%
3Q Spread -0.5	50%
3Q Spread -1.5	50%
3Q O/U 4.5	50%
4Q Spread -5.5	50%
4Q Spread -0.5	50%
4Q Spread -1.5	50%
Utah O/U 22.5	50%
Utah O/U 25.5	50%
Utah O/U 31.5	50%
Iowa State O/U 14.5	50%
Iowa State O/U 17.5	50%
Iowa State O/U 26.5	50%
Utah 1H O/U 16.5	50%
Utah 1H O/U 18.5	50%
Iowa State 1H O/U 7.5	50%
Iowa State 1H O/U 9.5	50%
Iowa State 1H O/U 11.5	50%
Utah 2H O/U 12.5	50%
Utah 2H O/U 14.5	50%
Utah 2H O/U 16.5	50%
Iowa State 2H O/U 8.5	50%
Iowa State 2H O/U 10.5	50%
Iowa State 2H O/U 12.5	50%
2H Moneyline	50%
Utah O/U 3.5	50%
Iowa State O/U 2.5	50%
1Q Moneyline	50%
2Q Moneyline	50%
3Q Moneyline	50%
4Q Moneyline	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H	50%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q1	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown	50%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q2	50%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q4	50%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q3	50%
Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown	50%
Game Goes to Overtime	50%
Pick-Six Scored	50%
Utah vs. Iowa State: Total Touchdowns O/U 4.5	50%
Utah vs. Iowa State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5	50%
Utah vs. Iowa State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5	50%
Utah Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5	50%
Utah Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5	50%
Iowa State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5	50%
Utah Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5	50%
Iowa State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5	50%
Iowa State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5	50%
Utah Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5	50%
Utah Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5	50%
Iowa State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5	50%
Utah Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5	50%
Iowa State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5	50%
Iowa State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5	50%
Utah Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5	50%
Utah Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5	50%
Utah Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5	50%
Iowa State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5	50%
Iowa State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5	50%
Iowa State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5	50%
Utah Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5	50%
Utah Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5	50%
Utah Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5	50%
Iowa State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5	50%
Iowa State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5	50%
Iowa State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5	50%
Utah 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
Utah 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
Iowa State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
Iowa State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
Utah Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
Utah Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
Utah Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5	50%
Iowa State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
Iowa State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5	50%
Iowa State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
Utah Total Receptions: O/U 14.5	50%
Utah Total Receptions: O/U 19.5	50%
Iowa State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5	50%
Utah Total Receptions: O/U 24.5	50%
Iowa State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5	50%
Iowa State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5	50%
Utah Total First Downs: O/U 21.5	50%
Utah Total First Downs: O/U 23.5	50%
Iowa State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5	50%
Utah Total First Downs: O/U 19.5	50%
Iowa State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5	50%
Utah vs. Iowa State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5	50%
Iowa State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5	50%
Utah vs. Iowa State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5	50%
Utah vs. Iowa State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5	50%
Spread -12.5	49%
Spread -8.5	49%
1H Spread -5.5	49%
2H Spread -3.5	49%
1H O/U 24.5	48%
4Q Spread -1.5	48%
4Q O/U 13.5	48%
Utah O/U 28.5	48%
Spread -9.5	47%
O/U 48.5	47%
Spread -15.5	46%
2Q Spread -3.5	46%
Utah 1H O/U 14.5	46%
1H Spread -6.5	45%
Iowa State O/U 20.5	45%
1Q O/U 10.5	44%
4Q Spread -2.5	44%
Spread -10.5	43%
2H Spread -5.5	43%
O/U 50.5	42%
2H O/U 24.5	42%
1Q Spread -3.5	42%
Spread -11.5	41%
3Q O/U 10.5	41%
2Q O/U 16.5	40%
3Q Spread -3.5	40%
Spread -13.5	39%
4Q Spread -3.5	38%
O/U 52.5	37%
1H Spread -7.5	37%
1H O/U 27.5	37%
Spread -22.5	36%
1Q O/U 13.5	36%
3Q O/U 13.5	36%
2H O/U 27.5	34%
Iowa State O/U 23.5	34%
Spread -14.5	33%
1H Spread -9.5	33%
O/U 54.5	32%
2H Spread -7.5	32%
Spread -16.5	30%
4Q O/U 16.5	30%
O/U 56.5	28%
1H O/U 30.5	28%
Utah O/U 34.5	28%
2H O/U 30.5	27%
2Q O/U 19.5	27%
Spread -18.5	25%
Spread -0.5	25%
O/U 58.5	24%
Spread -2.5	22%
3Q O/U 16.5	22%
4Q O/U 19.5	22%
1Q O/U 16.5	21%
Spread -21.5	18%
O/U 62.5	17%
O/U 64.5	16%
Spread -28.5	14%
Spread -5.5	14%
Spread -6.5	14%
Spread -24.5	13%
O/U 68.5	11%
Spread -9.5	8%

Market context

Utah vs. Iowa State — current market-implied probability: 87%. In the upcoming college football game between Utah and Iowa State, scheduled for September 26 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Utah" if Utah win the game. This market will resolve to "Iowa S…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices O/U 32.5 at 87% for "Utah vs. Iowa State".

O/U 32.5 87% Other 13%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $84K.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Utah vs. Iowa State. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?: Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
When do award markets resolve?: After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
What was the top Oscar 2025 market?: Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
How are reality-TV outcomes verified?: UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?: Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.

Alex ChenPrediction Market Analystand

Jordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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Utah vs. Iowa State

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Live Data & Statistics

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Utah vs. Iowa State on Oscar Predictions 2026

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