Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
78% | 22% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
78% | 22% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 35.5 | 78% |
| O/U 37.5 | 75% |
| O/U 39.5 | 69% |
| New Mexico State O/U 20.5 | 65% |
| O/U 41.5 | 62% |
| Sam Houston Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 61% |
| Spread -0.5 | 58% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 58% |
| New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston | 57% |
| O/U 43.5 | 57% |
| Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| New Mexico State O/U 23.5 | 55% |
| O/U 45.5 | 54% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 11.5 | 54% |
| 1H Moneyline | 54% |
| Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| O/U 75.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 15.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 49% |
| O/U 47.5 | 48% |
| New Mexico State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 15.5 | 47% |
| Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 46% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 45% |
| New Mexico State O/U 2.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 44% |
| Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| Sam Houston O/U 23.5 | 43% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 43% |
| Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| O/U 49.5 | 42% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 39% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 38% |
| New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| Sam Houston O/U 2.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| O/U 51.5 | 36% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 36% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 34% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| O/U 53.5 | 33% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 33% |
| Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 32% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 31% |
| Sam Houston Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 31% |
| Spread -8.5 | 30% |
| Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 30% |
| New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 29% |
| Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| O/U 55.5 | 28% |
| New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 28% |
| Sam Houston O/U 35.5 | 27% |
| Sam Houston 1H O/U 16.5 | 27% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 27% |
| New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 27% |
| Sam Houston Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Sam Houston Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 27% |
| Sam Houston Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 27% |
| Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 25% |
| O/U 57.5 | 24% |
| Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| Sam Houston O/U 26.5 | 20% |
| Spread -14.5 | 19% |
| O/U 59.5 | 19% |
| Spread -8.5 | 18% |
| O/U 61.5 | 18% |
| Spread -16.5 | 17% |
| Spread -20.5 | 17% |
| Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| O/U 63.5 | 13% |
| Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| O/U 65.5 | 11% |
| Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| Spread -16.5 | 10% |
| O/U 67.5 | 10% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| O/U 69.5 | 7% |
| O/U 71.5 | 6% |
| O/U 73.5 | 5% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, new mexico state vs. sam houston stands at 78% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming college football game between New Mexico State and Sam Houston, scheduled for October 21 at 8:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "New Mexico State" if New Mexico …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $151K.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Which entertainment markets are available?
- Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- Who can trade Eurovision markets?
- Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2026%20A%2022%2028%200%200%201%2054%2026%22%20fill%3D%22%23f472b6%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%23f472b6%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston on Oscar Predictions 2026
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →