How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Is entertainment trading worth the effort?

Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.

Iowa vs. Michigan — Live Odds & Forecast | Oscarpredictions2026

Name: Iowa vs. Michigan
Start: 2026-09-21T19:36:31.000Z
End: 2026-09-26T19:30:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	71%	29%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	71%	29%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Trade this market →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Trade this market →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
O/U 32.5	71%
O/U 20.5	63%
Spread -2.5	62%
O/U 36.5	61%
Spread -3.5	55%
O/U 38.5	54%
Iowa O/U 16.5	54%
Spread -1.5	53%
O/U 26.5	53%
1H Moneyline	52%
Spread -0.5	51%
Spread -4.5	51%
Spread -11.5	51%
Iowa 1H O/U 7.5	51%
Iowa Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5	51%
Iowa Total Receptions: O/U 14.5	51%
Spread -8.5	50%
Spread -0.5	50%
Spread -12.5	50%
Spread -19.5	50%
Spread -22.5	50%
Spread -23.5	50%
Spread -26.5	50%
O/U 18.5	50%
O/U 22.5	50%
O/U 24.5	50%
O/U 28.5	50%
O/U 30.5	50%
O/U 34.5	50%
O/U 42.5	50%
O/U 46.5	50%
O/U 48.5	50%
O/U 52.5	50%
O/U 54.5	50%
O/U 58.5	50%
1H Spread -1.5	50%
1H Spread -0.5	50%
1H Spread -1.5	50%
1H Spread -3.5	50%
1H Spread -5.5	50%
1H O/U 19.5	50%
1H O/U 22.5	50%
1H O/U 25.5	50%
2H Spread -1.5	50%
2H Spread -0.5	50%
2H Spread -1.5	50%
2H Spread -2.5	50%
2H Spread -3.5	50%
2H Spread -5.5	50%
2H O/U 13.5	50%
2H O/U 16.5	50%
2H O/U 19.5	50%
2H O/U 22.5	50%
2H O/U 25.5	50%
1Q Spread -1.5	50%
1Q Spread -0.5	50%
1Q Spread -0.5	50%
1Q Spread -1.5	50%
1Q Spread -3.5	50%
1Q O/U 1.5	50%
1Q O/U 4.5	50%
1Q O/U 7.5	50%
1Q O/U 10.5	50%
1Q O/U 13.5	50%
2Q Spread -1.5	50%
2Q Spread -0.5	50%
2Q Spread -1.5	50%
2Q Spread -5.5	50%
2Q O/U 4.5	50%
2Q O/U 7.5	50%
2Q O/U 10.5	50%
2Q O/U 13.5	50%
2Q O/U 16.5	50%
3Q Spread -1.5	50%
3Q Spread -0.5	50%
3Q Spread -1.5	50%
3Q Spread -3.5	50%
3Q Spread -5.5	50%
3Q O/U 1.5	50%
3Q O/U 4.5	50%
3Q O/U 7.5	50%
3Q O/U 10.5	50%
4Q Spread -1.5	50%
4Q Spread -0.5	50%
4Q Spread -1.5	50%
4Q Spread -2.5	50%
4Q Spread -3.5	50%
4Q Spread -5.5	50%
4Q O/U 3.5	50%
4Q O/U 6.5	50%
4Q O/U 9.5	50%
4Q O/U 12.5	50%
4Q O/U 15.5	50%
Iowa O/U 10.5	50%
Iowa O/U 19.5	50%
Iowa O/U 22.5	50%
Michigan O/U 16.5	50%
Michigan O/U 19.5	50%
Michigan O/U 22.5	50%
Michigan O/U 25.5	50%
Michigan O/U 28.5	50%
Iowa 1H O/U 5.5	50%
Iowa 1H O/U 9.5	50%
Michigan 1H O/U 11.5	50%
Michigan 1H O/U 13.5	50%
Michigan 1H O/U 15.5	50%
Iowa 2H O/U 6.5	50%
Iowa 2H O/U 8.5	50%
Iowa 2H O/U 10.5	50%
Michigan 2H O/U 9.5	50%
Michigan 2H O/U 11.5	50%
Michigan 2H O/U 13.5	50%
2H Moneyline	50%
Iowa O/U 1.5	50%
Michigan O/U 2.5	50%
1Q Moneyline	50%
2Q Moneyline	50%
3Q Moneyline	50%
4Q Moneyline	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3	50%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q1	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1	50%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q2	50%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q3	50%
Iowa vs. Michigan: Total Touchdowns O/U 3.5	50%
Pick-Six Scored	50%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q4	50%
Game Goes to Overtime	50%
Iowa vs. Michigan: Total Touchdowns O/U 4.5	50%
Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown	50%
Iowa vs. Michigan: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5	50%
Michigan Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5	50%
Iowa Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5	50%
Michigan Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5	50%
Iowa Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5	50%
Michigan Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5	50%
Iowa Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5	50%
Iowa Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5	50%
Iowa Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5	50%
Michigan Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5	50%
Michigan Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5	50%
Iowa Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5	50%
Michigan Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5	50%
Iowa Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5	50%
Iowa Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5	50%
Michigan Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5	50%
Michigan Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5	50%
Michigan Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5	50%
Iowa Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5	50%
Iowa Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5	50%
Michigan Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5	50%
Iowa Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5	50%
Michigan Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5	50%
Michigan Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5	50%
Iowa 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
Iowa 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
Michigan 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
Iowa Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
Iowa Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
Michigan 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
Iowa Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5	50%
Michigan Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
Michigan Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
Michigan Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5	50%
Iowa Total Receptions: O/U 19.5	50%
Iowa Total Receptions: O/U 24.5	50%
Michigan Total Receptions: O/U 14.5	50%
Michigan Total Receptions: O/U 19.5	50%
Michigan Total Receptions: O/U 24.5	50%
Iowa Total First Downs: O/U 21.5	50%
Iowa Total First Downs: O/U 19.5	50%
Michigan Total First Downs: O/U 23.5	50%
Iowa Total First Downs: O/U 23.5	50%
Michigan Total First Downs: O/U 21.5	50%
Iowa vs. Michigan: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5	50%
Michigan Total First Downs: O/U 19.5	50%
Iowa vs. Michigan: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5	50%
Iowa vs. Michigan: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5	50%
Spread -1.5	49%
Spread -5.5	49%
Spread -7.5	49%
Spread -8.5	49%
O/U 40.5	49%
1H O/U 13.5	49%
1H O/U 16.5	49%
1Q Spread -3.5	49%
2Q Spread -3.5	49%
3Q O/U 13.5	49%
3Q Spread -2.5	48%
Spread -14.5	47%
2Q Spread -2.5	47%
Spread -6.5	45%
Spread -20.5	45%
Spread -2.5	43%
O/U 44.5	43%
Spread -14.5	41%
Spread -10.5	41%
O/U 56.5	41%
Spread -11.5	40%
Spread -9.5	37%
Iowa O/U 13.5	37%
Iowa vs. Michigan	35%
Spread -10.5	32%
O/U 50.5	32%
1H Spread -2.5	30%
Spread -4.5	27%
Spread -13.5	27%
Spread -16.5	21%
Spread -7.5	15%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 71% YES probability for Iowa vs. Michigan. In the upcoming college football game between Iowa and Michigan, scheduled for September 26 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Iowa" if Iowa win the game. This market will resolve to "Michigan…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices O/U 32.5 at 71% for "Iowa vs. Michigan".

O/U 32.5 71% Other 29%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $364K.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Iowa vs. Michigan. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

How accurate are award predictions?: Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
What was the top Oscar 2025 market?: Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
Who can trade Eurovision markets?: Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
How are reality-TV outcomes verified?: UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
Is entertainment trading worth the effort?: Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.

Alex ChenPrediction Market Analystand

Jordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

Trade Iowa vs. Michigan on Oscar Predictions 2026

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Iowa vs. Michigan

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Live Data & Statistics

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Iowa vs. Michigan on Oscar Predictions 2026

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