Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.

Hawai'i vs. Wyoming | Oscarpredictions2026 [92% Yes]

Name: Hawai'i vs. Wyoming
Start: 2026-09-21T19:23:14.000Z
End: 2026-09-26T19:00:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	92%	8%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	92%	8%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Trade this market →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Trade this market →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
O/U 25.5	92%
O/U 27.5	91%
O/U 31.5	87%
O/U 29.5	86%
O/U 33.5	83%
O/U 35.5	73%
1H O/U 16.5	73%
O/U 37.5	67%
O/U 39.5	61%
1H O/U 19.5	60%
Hawai'i vs. Wyoming	57%
Spread -0.5	57%
Spread -1.5	56%
O/U 41.5	56%
1H Moneyline	56%
Spread -2.5	54%
O/U 43.5	52%
1H Spread -0.5	52%
2Q O/U 7.5	51%
Spread -24.5	50%
Spread -12.5	50%
1H Spread -5.5	50%
1H Spread -1.5	50%
1H O/U 28.5	50%
2H Spread -5.5	50%
2H Spread -3.5	50%
2H Spread -2.5	50%
2H Spread -1.5	50%
2H Spread -0.5	50%
2H Spread -1.5	50%
2H O/U 16.5	50%
2H O/U 19.5	50%
2H O/U 22.5	50%
2H O/U 25.5	50%
2H O/U 28.5	50%
1Q Spread -3.5	50%
1Q Spread -1.5	50%
1Q Spread -0.5	50%
1Q Spread -1.5	50%
1Q Spread -3.5	50%
1Q O/U 3.5	50%
1Q O/U 6.5	50%
1Q O/U 12.5	50%
1Q O/U 15.5	50%
2Q Spread -5.5	50%
2Q Spread -3.5	50%
2Q Spread -2.5	50%
2Q Spread -1.5	50%
2Q Spread -0.5	50%
2Q Spread -1.5	50%
2Q O/U 10.5	50%
2Q O/U 13.5	50%
2Q O/U 16.5	50%
2Q O/U 19.5	50%
3Q Spread -5.5	50%
3Q Spread -3.5	50%
3Q Spread -2.5	50%
3Q Spread -1.5	50%
3Q Spread -0.5	50%
3Q Spread -1.5	50%
3Q O/U 3.5	50%
3Q O/U 6.5	50%
3Q O/U 9.5	50%
3Q O/U 12.5	50%
3Q O/U 15.5	50%
4Q Spread -5.5	50%
4Q Spread -3.5	50%
4Q Spread -2.5	50%
4Q Spread -1.5	50%
4Q Spread -0.5	50%
4Q Spread -1.5	50%
4Q O/U 5.5	50%
4Q O/U 8.5	50%
4Q O/U 11.5	50%
4Q O/U 14.5	50%
4Q O/U 17.5	50%
Hawai'i O/U 18.5	50%
Hawai'i O/U 21.5	50%
Wyoming O/U 15.5	50%
Wyoming O/U 18.5	50%
Wyoming O/U 24.5	50%
Hawai'i 1H O/U 11.5	50%
Hawai'i 1H O/U 13.5	50%
Hawai'i 1H O/U 15.5	50%
Wyoming 1H O/U 8.5	50%
Wyoming 1H O/U 10.5	50%
Wyoming 1H O/U 12.5	50%
Hawai'i 2H O/U 10.5	50%
Hawai'i 2H O/U 12.5	50%
Hawai'i 2H O/U 14.5	50%
Wyoming 2H O/U 8.5	50%
Wyoming 2H O/U 10.5	50%
Wyoming 2H O/U 12.5	50%
2H Moneyline	50%
Wyoming O/U 2.5	50%
Hawai'i O/U 2.5	50%
1Q Moneyline	50%
2Q Moneyline	50%
3Q Moneyline	50%
4Q Moneyline	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown	50%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q1	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4	50%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q3	50%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q2	50%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q4	50%
Game Goes to Overtime	50%
Pick-Six Scored	50%
Hawai'i vs. Wyoming: Total Touchdowns O/U 4.5	50%
Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown	50%
Hawai'i vs. Wyoming: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5	50%
Hawai'i Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5	50%
Hawai'i vs. Wyoming: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5	50%
Hawai'i Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5	50%
Wyoming Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5	50%
Hawai'i Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5	50%
Wyoming Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5	50%
Wyoming Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5	50%
Hawai'i Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5	50%
Hawai'i Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5	50%
Hawai'i Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5	50%
Wyoming Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5	50%
Hawai'i Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5	50%
Wyoming Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5	50%
Wyoming Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5	50%
Hawai'i Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5	50%
Hawai'i Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5	50%
Wyoming Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5	50%
Wyoming Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5	50%
Hawai'i Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5	50%
Hawai'i Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5	50%
Wyoming Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5	50%
Hawai'i Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5	50%
Wyoming Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5	50%
Wyoming Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5	50%
Wyoming Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5	50%
Hawai'i 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
Wyoming 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
Hawai'i Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
Wyoming 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
Hawai'i 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
Hawai'i Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5	50%
Wyoming Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
Hawai'i Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
Wyoming Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
Hawai'i Total Receptions: O/U 19.5	50%
Hawai'i Total Receptions: O/U 24.5	50%
Wyoming Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5	50%
Hawai'i Total Receptions: O/U 14.5	50%
Wyoming Total Receptions: O/U 19.5	50%
Wyoming Total Receptions: O/U 14.5	50%
Wyoming Total Receptions: O/U 24.5	50%
Hawai'i Total First Downs: O/U 19.5	50%
Hawai'i Total First Downs: O/U 21.5	50%
Hawai'i Total First Downs: O/U 23.5	50%
Wyoming Total First Downs: O/U 19.5	50%
Wyoming Total First Downs: O/U 21.5	50%
Hawai'i vs. Wyoming: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5	50%
Wyoming Total First Downs: O/U 23.5	50%
Hawai'i vs. Wyoming: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5	50%
Hawai'i vs. Wyoming: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5	50%
1H Spread -2.5	49%
1Q O/U 9.5	49%
Spread -3.5	45%
1H O/U 22.5	45%
O/U 45.5	44%
1Q Spread -0.5	44%
Wyoming O/U 21.5	44%
Spread -4.5	43%
Spread -0.5	43%
Hawai'i O/U 24.5	43%
Spread -5.5	42%
1H Spread -3.5	40%
Spread -1.5	39%
O/U 47.5	39%
1H Spread -1.5	39%
1H O/U 25.5	39%
Spread -6.5	38%
Spread -2.5	37%
O/U 49.5	34%
Hawai'i O/U 27.5	34%
Spread -7.5	32%
Spread -3.5	32%
O/U 51.5	32%
Spread -8.5	30%
Spread -9.5	29%
Spread -4.5	28%
O/U 53.5	27%
Spread -10.5	26%
Hawai'i O/U 30.5	26%
Spread -6.5	25%
Wyoming O/U 27.5	25%
Spread -11.5	24%
Spread -12.5	22%
Spread -14.5	19%
Spread -9.5	18%
O/U 55.5	17%
Spread -10.5	16%
O/U 59.5	16%
O/U 57.5	15%
Spread -17.5	14%
Spread -20.5	12%
Spread -13.5	11%
O/U 61.5	11%
Spread -21.5	9%
Spread -18.5	9%
Spread -16.5	9%
O/U 63.5	9%
O/U 65.5	7%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 92% YES probability for Hawai'i vs. Wyoming. In the upcoming college football game between Hawai'i and Wyoming, scheduled for September 26 at 3:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Hawai'i" if Hawai'i win the game. This market will resolve to "…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices O/U 25.5 at 92% for "Hawai'i vs. Wyoming".

O/U 25.5 92% Other 8%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $190K.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Hawai'i vs. Wyoming. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?: Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
When do award markets resolve?: After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
What was the top Oscar 2025 market?: Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
How are reality-TV outcomes verified?: UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?: Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.

Alex ChenPrediction Market Analystand

Jordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

Trade Hawai'i vs. Wyoming on Oscar Predictions 2026

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Hawai'i vs. Wyoming

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Live Data & Statistics

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Hawai'i vs. Wyoming on Oscar Predictions 2026

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