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PGA Tour: The Open Championship Winner

How the prediction markets are pricing "PGA Tour: The Open Championship Winner" — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Scottie Scheffler 11% Rory McIlroy 10% Tommy Fleetwood 6% Matt Fitzpatrick 5% Volume: $96K Liquidity: $2.5M Closes: 19 Jul 2026
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PGA Tour: The Open Championship Winner

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 11% 89% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 11% 89% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Scottie Scheffler11%
Rory McIlroy10%
Tommy Fleetwood6%
Matt Fitzpatrick5%
Jon Rahm4%
Xander Schauffele3%
Viktor Hovland3%
Robert MacIntyre3%
Collin Morikawa2%
Chris Gotterup2%
Justin Rose2%
Wyndham Clark2%
Tyrrell Hatton2%
Cameron Young2%
Si Woo Kim2%
Sam Burns2%
Russell Henley2%
Min Woo Lee2%
Joaquin Niemann1%
Tom Kim1%
Patrick Reed1%
Shane Lowry1%
Bryson DeChambeau1%
Brooks Koepka1%
Justin Thomas1%
Aaron Rai1%
J.J. Spaun1%
Alex Fitzpatrick1%
Jordan Spieth1%
Patrick Cantlay1%
Hideki Matsuyama1%
Harris English1%
Kurt Kitayama1%
Ben Griffin1%
Maverick McNealy1%
Akshay Bhatia1%
Rickie Fowler1%
Kristoffer Reitan1%
Alexander Noren1%
Hao-Tong Li1%
Adam Scott0%
Cameron Smith0%
Corey Conners0%
Brian Harman0%
Victor Perez0%
Michael Thorbjornsen0%
Jordan L. Smith0%
David Puig0%
Max Homa0%
Ryan Gerard0%
Angel Ayora0%
Johnny Keefer0%
Jason Day0%
Sepp Straka0%
Ryan Fox0%
Jacob Bridgeman0%
Keegan Bradley0%
Matt Wallace0%
Tom McKibbin0%
Ryo Hisatsune0%
Jake Knapp0%
Eric Cole0%
JT Poston0%
Marco Penge0%
Bud Cauley0%
Gary Woodland0%
Keita Nakajima0%
Keith Mitchell0%
Sahith Theegala0%
Thomas Detry0%
Alex Smalley0%
Harry Hall0%
Daniel Berger0%
Max Greyserman0%
Jayden Schaper0%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen0%
Michael Kim0%
Lucas Herbert0%
Matt McCarty0%
Nick Taylor0%
Hendrik Du Plessis0%
Sung-Jae Im0%
Andrew Novak0%
Casey Jarvis0%
Pierceson Coody0%
Billy Horschel0%
Daniel Hillier0%
Michael Brennan0%
Jackson Suber0%
Jesper Svensson0%
Bernd Wiesberger0%
Laurie Canter0%
Francesco Molinari0%
Scott Vincent0%
Sami Valimaki0%
Louis Oosthuizen0%
Matthew Jordan0%
John Parry0%
Sam Stevens0%
Daniel Brown0%
Player 00%
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Other0%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 11% YES probability for PGA Tour: The Open Championship Winner. This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 The Open Championship tournament. If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the The Open Championship tournament b…

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for PGA Tour: The Open Championship Winner. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?
Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
When do award markets resolve?
After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
Who can trade Eurovision markets?
Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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