SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13

Platform comparison

Market context

SpaceX attempted to launch its thirteenth Starship flight test on Thursday, 16 July 2026, but the mission was cleanly aborted at T‑0 just before liftoff, with no official cause announced yet [2]. The 90‑minute launch window had opened at 5:45 p.m. CDT (6:45 p.m. EDT, 22:45 UTC) from Starbase Pad 2, targeting a sub‑orbital profile similar to Flight 12 in May [1][3].

Historically, early Starship tests have been marked by frequent aborts and slips before achieving clean flights, making a current 0% YES probability consistent with precedent rather than an outlier [2]. Unlike entertainment awards that split jury and public votes or use preferential ballots, spaceflight outcomes are binary and hinge on engineering readiness; past flights such as FT‑1 and FT‑2 also saw initial failures before later successes, framing today’s zero as a reflection of the aborted attempt rather than a permanent verdict [2][3].

Traders should monitor SpaceX’s next official announcement on the abort cause, any updated launch date (with July 17 a confirmed backup day), and progress on static fires or pad checks before the next attempt [2][3]. Key dependencies include the readiness of Booster 20 and Ship 40 (both Block 3/V3), the status of the 20 Starlink V3 satellites intended for deployment, and FAA or weather advisories that could delay the window [3][6]. A US Today report notes SpaceX is aiming for July 16 with a backup the following day, underscoring the need to watch for schedule slips or technical updates [11].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Is entertainment trading worth the effort?

Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.