Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is a new country formally signing a normalisation deal with Israel under the Abraham Accords framework before the end-2026 deadline, which keeps the market tied to a very specific diplomatic announcement rather than loose talk of rapprochement. Reuters describes the accords as the 2020 US-brokered normalisation agreements that broke a long-standing Arab taboo, with the UAE and Bahrain first, followed by Morocco and then Sudan’s initial declaration, while Britannica notes that Saudi Arabia and Syria have shown interest but have not yet concluded a deal.[8][2]

The current 6% implied probability reads like a low-probability, multi-candidate field rather than a single live negotiation. Paridesk’s market page says trading is broadly distributed across seven candidates, with Somaliland currently the heaviest-backed, followed by Lebanon and Azerbaijan, which is the sort of spread that usually keeps a “Yes” price subdued unless one track suddenly becomes official.[1] The precedent from the first wave of accords matters: once a formal signing is close, it tends to be highly visible and publicly attributed, not a quiet bureaucratic process, so market movement should usually come from explicit government language rather than background diplomacy.[2][8]

Traders will be watching for summit scheduling, US mediation, and any government statement that explicitly links a signing to the Abraham Accords framework, because the settlement requires public acknowledgement by both sides and a formal agreement by 31 December 2026.[1] Recent commentary has also kept attention on Saudi Arabia, Syria and Pakistan as possible names in the wider conversation, but Reuters noted no other countries had publicly responded to Trump’s appeal at the time of that report, underscoring how much confirmation still has to happen before any outcome can settle “Yes”.[7]

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Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.