Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are barely moving through the Strait of Hormuz as the ongoing Iran–US conflict has effectively shut the chokepoint, with current transit calls near zero against a normal baseline of roughly 60 per day. This closure, which began after a brief reopening in late April, has stranded over 150 vessels and triggered a global oil price spike, while Washington insists the strait’s reopening is a prerequisite for any ceasefire with Tehran[1][2][3].

Historical precedents for such geopolitical chokepoints show that crowd-implied probabilities often lag behind sudden shifts in military diplomacy; for instance, the 50/50 jury-and-televote split used in Eurovision or the preferential ballot for the Oscars demonstrates how public sentiment can diverge sharply from expert assessment when high-stakes negotiations stall[1]. The current 38% YES probability reflects this uncertainty, mirroring how markets previously priced the 2024 ceasefire talks before the strait briefly reopened, only to close again within days when peace talks failed[2].

Traders must watch for President Trump’s declared naval blockade against Iran and any official announcements regarding mine-laying by Tehran, as these dependencies directly dictate transit safety[3]. Recent data from IMF PortWatch shows the 7-day moving average at just 13.14 as of 21 June, far below the 60 threshold, while shipping executives await a peace deal to restore confidence[2][7]. The daily economic cost exceeds $4 billion, and without a breakthrough, rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope will persist, adding up to 14 extra transit days and keeping traffic suppressed[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.